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Rabobank issues Q3 fertilizer outlook

Rabobank releasing their third-quarter fertilizer report predicting prices will move a little higher but not much.  The analysis says seasonal demand from China, India and the U.S. is “unlikely to cause any prolonged rise in prices.”  Rabobank says the bearish commodity prices will have limited impact on input use in the short-term but in the mid-term we may see farmers reduce fertilizer applications.

The report cautions China may reduce exports of DAP and urea due to increased domestic demand.  Record-low monsoons may reduce demand in India, Brazil has good stocks but increasing soybean acreage should increase fertilizer demand.  European demand may be influenced by the weakening Euro and resistance to higher prices.

Logistics remains the big challenge in the United States as the demand for rail and barge service is increasing.  Fertilizer suppliers may look to put in as much inventory as they can this fall although there is the risk that low commodity prices will prompt farmers to cut back on fertilizer next spring.  However, Rabobank notes total farm equity has risen significantly putting growers in a position to get the money they need for inputs.

More information can be found here:

http://rabobank-food-agribusiness-research.pressdoc.com

 

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