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USDA raises domestic ending stocks

USDA has raised 2013/14 ending stocks projections for corn and soybeans, along with 2014/15 estimates for corn, soybeans, and wheat. USDA’s next set of supply and demand numbers is out September 11.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

2014/15 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 663 million bushels, compared to 660 million in July and 590 million in 2013/14. USDA raised production to 2.030 billion bushels, putting total supply at 2.779 billion. Feed and residual use was increased 10 million bushels to 155 million, for domestic use of 1.191 billion bushels, and exports were upped 25 million bushels to 925 million, taking total use to 2.116 billion bushels. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $5.80 to $6.80 per bushel, compared to last month’s range of $6 to $7.20 and last marketing year’s price of $6.87.

2013/14 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 1.181 billion bushels, compared to 1.246 billion a month ago and 821 million for 2012/13. The average farm price is estimated at $4.40 to $4.50 per bushel, compared to $6.89 in the previous marketing year.

2014/15 U.S. corn ending stocks are pegged at 1.808 billion bushels, compared to 1.801 billion last month. Factoring in the decreased beginning stocks and increased production guess, total supply is seen at 15.243 billion bushels. Feed and residual use was raised 50 million bushels to 5.250 billion, food, seed & industrial use was 25 million bushels higher at 6.460 billion, and ethanol was increased 25 million bushels to 5.075 billion, taking domestic use to 11.710 billion bushels. Exports are now projected at 1.725 billion bushels, compared to 1.7 billion, putting total use at 13.435 billion bushels. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $3.55 to $4.25 per bushel, compared to July’s range of $3.65 to $4.35.

2013/14 U.S. soybean ending stocks came out at 140 million bushels, unchanged on the month and very close to the 141 million for 2012/13. The average farm price is estimated at $13.00 per bushel, compared to $14.40 last marketing year.

2014/15 U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 430 million bushels, compared to 415 million a month ago. USDA raised the production guess, taking total supply to 3.971 billion bushels. There were no other changes to the balance sheet. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $9.35 to $11.35 per bushel, compared to $9.50 to $11.50 last month.

2014/15 world wheat ending stocks are estimated at 192.96 million tons, compared to 189.54 million a month ago and the 2013/14 estimate of 183.66 million tons. USDA raised production to 716.09 million tons, with increased projections for the U.S., China, dozen smaller former Soviet states, Russia, and Ukraine cancelling out a very slight decrease for the European Union. Domestic feed use is pegged at 134.62 million tons, compared to 129.39 million last month, and exports are seen at 151.80 million tons, compared to 151.61 million in July.

2014/15 world corn ending stocks are projected at 187.2 million tons, compared to 188.05 million last month and 171.09 million for 2013/14. Global production is seen at 985.39 million tons, up around 4.4 million on the month, on larger estimates for the U.S. and European Union. Domestic feed use is placed at 594.42 million tons, compared to 593.85 million in July, and exports are expected to be 115.86 million tons, compared to 115.22 million a month ago.

2014/15 world soybean ending stocks are seen at 85.62 million tons, compared to 85.62 million in July and 2013/14’s estimate of 67.09 million tons. World production is now projected at 304.69 million tons, down slightly on the month with increased U.S. and European Union guesses canceled out by decreased expectations for lesser producers. Domestic crush is pegged at 250.90 million tons, compared to 250.91 million a month ago, and exports are placed at 113.32 million tons, compared to 113.29 million last month.