A bearish response to the USDA numbers

Soybeans were lower on fund and commercial selling. USDA raised production to 3.8 billion bushels thanks to larger acreage numbers, while leaving average yield unchanged. Also, old and new crop ending stocks were up from June. Old crop took a big hit price wise, even with a -69 million bushel residual estimate, so it looks like demand’s been sufficiently rationed and commercials aren’t concerned with supply. Soybean meal and oil were lower on the fundamental implications of a larger crop.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. USDA lowered corn production to 13.86 billion bushels due to smaller acreage numbers. Even with that lower crop estimate, old and new crop ending stocks were up on the month, and the supply looks comfortable. Ethanol futures were lower.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, along with the higher dollar. USDA raised the spring wheat guess, while lowering the winter wheat estimate. U.S. and world ending stocks were above a month ago and both look ample. There are more harvest delays in the forecast for winter wheat, but for now, the trade’s more focused on the recharged soil moisture for next year’s crop.

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