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USDA reports even fewer hogs than expected

USDA’s quarterly hogs and pigs report was expected to show PEDv impact. It showed a larger impact than analysts were expecting.

University of Missouri Agricultural Economics Professor Ron Plain tells Brownfield PEDv is reducing hog numbers, but if there’s a positive for pork producers, “The pigs per litter continues to be very low and that’s pulling down the number of market hogs, and gives us a very bright outlook for hog prices.”

Plain adds that there just isn’t much producers can do to stem the spread of PEDv, “We’ve not been very successful at containing the spread of the disease. Most hog farmers, I think, realize that it pays to do everything you can, but not to be too surprised if they end up with the disease on their farms.”

Allendale’s David Kohli says the numbers look supportive for futures.

As of June 1, all hogs and pigs in the U.S. were 62.128 million head, down 5% on the year, when, on average, via Reuters, analysts were anticipating a 2.9% decline. The breeding inventory was pegged at 5.855 million head, a little less than last year when traders were expecting a 1.8% increase, and the market inventory was 56.273 million head, 5% below a year ago, compared to expectations for a 3.2% decrease. By weight, hogs weighing less than 50 pounds were 17.999 million head and the 50 to 119 pound category was 16.071 million, while the 120 to 179 pounders were 11.931 million head and the 180 pound and over category was 10.271 million.

The March to May pig crop of 27.361 million head was 5% lower than a year ago and sow farrowings during that period saw a modest year to year decline at 2.797 million head. There were an average of 9.78 pigs saved per litter, compared to 10.31 for March to May 2013.

June through August farrowing intentions are projected at 2.893 million head, which would be up slightly on the year, and September through November intentions are seen at 2.880 million head, which would be up 4%.

USDA also made downward adjustments to the December and March inventory numbers and to the September through November 2013 pig crop.