Market News

USDA lowers corn, soybean ending stocks

USDA has lowered its corn and soybean ending stocks projections.

USDA estimates corn ending stocks for the 2013/14 marketing year at 1.331 billion bushels on expectations for strong export demand. Before the report, estimates ranged from 1.306 billion to 1.478 billion bushels, with an average of 1.403 billion bushels.

Soybeans are seen at 135 million bushels with a bigger export guess cancelling out a larger import figure. Analysts were expecting beans to be around 139 million bushels, with a range of 131 million to 147 million bushels.

Wheat ending stocks came out at 583 million bushels with a decreased feed demand estimate. Pre-report expectations ranged from 550 million to 625 million bushels, for an average of 581 million bushels.

For the 2012/13 marketing year, corn ending stocks were 821 million bushels, soybean ending stocks were 141 million, and wheat ending stocks were 718 million bushels.

The next set of supply and demand numbers is out May 9.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

2013/14 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 583 million bushels, compared to March’s projection of 558 million. USDA lowered imports 5 million bushels to 165 million, putting total supply at 3.013 billion bushels, and slashed feed and residual use 30 million bushels to 220 million, taking domestic use to 1.254 billion bushels and total use to 2.429 billion. The average 2013/14 farm price is estimated at $6.75 to $6.95 per bushel, unchanged on the month and down from the 2012/13 average of $7.77.

2013/14 U.S. corn ending stocks came out at 1.331 billion bushels, compared to 1.456 billion a month ago. The sole change to the balance sheet was a 125 million bushel increase to exports, up to 1.750 billion bushels, putting total use at 1.450 billion bushels. The average 2013/14 farm price is estimated at $4.40 to $4.80 per bushel, compared to $4.25 to $4.75 last month and $6.89 last marketing year.

2013/14 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 135 million bushels, compared to 145 million in the prior report. Imports were raised 30 million bushels to 65 million, taking total supply to 3.494 billion bushels. USDA reduced crush 5 million bushels to 1.685 billion, but increased exports 50 million to 1.580 billion bushels. With an upward revision to seed use, 8 million bushels higher to 95 million, and a complete clear out of the 12 million bushels in the residual category, that puts total use at 3.360 billion bushels. The average 2013/14 farm price is estimated at $12.50 to $13.50 per bushel, compared to $12.20 to $13.70 a month ago and $14.40 a year ago.

2013/14 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are estimated at 1.570 billion pounds, compared to 1.575 billion last month. Production was lowered 55 million pounds to 19.665 billion, putting total supply at 21.570 billion pounds. Domestic use was reduced 100 million pounds to 18.450 billion on a reduction in biodiesel, to 4.8 billion pounds. With exports raised 50 million pounds to 1.550 billion, total use is pegged at 20 billion pounds. The average 2013/14 farm price is estimated at $.38 to $.40 per pound, compared to $.36 to $.39 in March and the 2012/13 price of $.4713.

2013/14 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks are seen at 300,000 tons, unchanged on the month. USDA lowered production 100,000 tons to 40.010 million, taking total supply to 40.500 million tons. Domestic disappearance was reduced 200,000 tons to 29.2 million, but exports were raised 100,000 to 11 million, putting total use at 40.2 million. The average 2013/14 farm price is estimated at $460 to $490 per ton, compared to $450 to $490 a month ago and $468.11 a year ago.

2013/14 world wheat ending stocks were pegged at 186.68 million tons, compared to 183.81 million in March and the average pre-report estimate of 183.7 million tons. Production was left unchanged at 712.52 million tons with a handful of small changes offsetting each other. Domestic feed use is seen at 132.88 million tons, compared to 134.95 million a month ago, and exports are estimated at 160.89 million tons, compared to 162.05 million last month.

2013/14 world corn ending stocks are projected at 158 million tons, compared to 158.47 million a month ago and the average estimate of 157.9 million tons. Production is expected to be 973.90 million tons, compared to 967.52 million in March. USDA increased estimates for Brazil, South Africa, Southeast Asia, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states. Domestic feed use is estimated at 576.15 million tons, compared to 574.93 million last month, and exports are seen at 119.43 million tons, compared to 114.53 million in March, with larger projections for the U.S., South Africa, Mexico, Southeast Asia, those dozen smaller former Soviet states, and Ukraine.

2013/14 world soybean ending stocks are seen at 69.42 million tons, compared to 70.64 million last month and the average estimate of 70 million tons. Production is pegged at 284.05 million tons, compared to 285.43 million in March, on reduced expectations for Brazil and Japan. Brazilian production is now projected at 87.5 million tons. Domestic crush use is expected to be 238.67 million tons, compared to 239.04 million a month ago, and exports are estimated at 109.43 million tons, compared to 108.22 million last month. USDA did raise the U.S. export estimate, while lowering Brazil a half million tons to 44.5 million tons.