Market News

Allendale expects a lot of soybean acres

Allendale Inc.’s 2014 U.S. acreage survey has a message…and that message is farmers are going to plant a lot of soybeans this year.

Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at Allendale, tells Brownfield the firm sees soybean planting at a record 83.212 million acres, “They’re telling very clearly that we will be going into soybeans hard and heavy this year. In fact, a full 6.7 million acres extra for soybeans this year; corn, down about 3 million acres from last year’s numbers.”

Nelson adds a lot of the acreage shift should come in the Eastern Cornbelt, “Farmers told us very clearly that those record snows in many areas, from Illinois through Ohio, were a significant factor in making that determination. Additionally, we saw some problems with North Dakota and portions of South Dakota as well. We know those farmers still have corn in the field, for instance, in the central and region of those states.”

Following a survey of 28 U.S. states, Allendale projects soybean planting at a record 83.212 million acres, compared to USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum estimate of 79.5 million, and the 2013 total of 76.533 million acres. Allendale’s also anticipating record production, 3.639 billion bushels, using a trend line yield of 44.29 bushels per acre.

Corn is expected to be 92.349 million acres, which would be the fourth largest since 1944, compared to USDA’s last guess of 92.0 million, and the 2013 total of 95.365 million acres. Year to year, that’s a decrease of 3.016 million acres. Production is projected at 13.781 billion bushels, if realized, the second largest ever, with a trend line yield of 163.06 bushels per acre.

All wheat acreage is estimated at 55.324 million acres, compared to USDA’s most recent projection of 55.5 million acres, and the 2013 total of 56.156 million acres. With a trend line yield of 45.85 bushels per acre, production would be 2.175 billion bushels. By type, winter wheat is pegged at 41.929 million acres, 1.161 million less than last year, durum is seen at 1.520 million acres, 50,000 more than a year ago, and other spring wheat is placed at 11.875 million acres, 279,000 above 2013.

USDA’s 2014 prospective plantings report is out March 31.