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Analyst expects more plant closings

Although expansion of the nation’s cow herd is underway, it will be a slow process. 

And as more females are retained, CattleFax market analyst Kevin Good says it will shrink cattle slaughter numbers even more.

“Over the next two years, from what we harvested in 2013 to where we’re going in 2015, we’re going to take roughly about 10-thousand head a day out of the harvest mix,” Good says.

National Beef recently announced plans to close its 2,500-head per day beef plant in Brawley, California.  That follows last year’s closing a 4,500-head per day Cargill facility in Plainview Texas.

As supplies of cattle continue to tighten, Good says additional plant closures are likely.

“Don’t be surprised if we have to downsize our packing capacity—at least over the next two years—by at least another one, two or three packing plants, depending on the size,” he says, “and some of the some regional cow plants probably are a little more vulnerable because of that big drop that we expect in non-fed cow slaughter.”

Good spoke at the recent CattleFax Outlook Seminar in Nashville.

AUDIO: Excerpt from Kevin Good’s presentation (7:28 MP3)

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