2013 good; 2014 better for dairy

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from USDA on Friday trimmed the 2013 milk production estimated from a month ago and raised the 2014 estimate. Citing recent milk production data the 2013 estimate was reduced 300 million pounds to 201.3 billion pounds for the year.

For 2013, cheese averaged $1.7683 per pound up 6 cents from 2012. Butter averaged $1.5451 per pound, down a nickel from the previous year. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.7066 for the year up 38 cents from 2012 while dry whey was about the same at 59 cents per pound.

Class III milk price for 2013 averaged $17.99 up 55 cents from 2012. Class IV was $3.05 higher at $19.05 and the all milk price averaged $19.99 per hundredweight up $1.46 from 2012.

Meanwhile, the improving milk-to-feed ratio and better profitability, the outlook board raised the 2014 milk production guess by 300 million pounds to 205.6 billion pounds.

Strong domestic and export demand pushing cheese, butter and nonfat dry milk prices higher for 2014. Cheese is projected to average between $1.76 and $1.84 this year, butter $1.515 and $1.625, nonfat dry milk $1.805 to $1.865 and dry whey between 55 and 58 cents per pound. Class III milk is expected to range between $17.80 and $18.60 per hundredweight in 2014, Class IV should be between $19.80 and $20.70 with the all milk price at $20.60 to $21.40.

Read the full WASDE report here:


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