USDA lowers U.S. wheat ending stocks

USDA tightened the balance sheet for U.S. soybeans and wheat, while raising its corn ending stocks projection.

Domestic wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year are pegged at 691 million bushels, compared to 716 million in the previous report and 743 million last marketing year. The average guess, via Dow Jones Newswires, was 728 million bushels, but USDA left exports unchanged and increased the feed use projection. The average farm price is estimated at $7.70 to $8.10 per bushel, compared to $7.65 to $8.15 in January.

U.S. corn ending stocks are seen at 632 million bushels, compared to 602 million a month ago and 989 million a year ago. Before the report, the average estimate was 615 million bushels. USDA left ethanol demand unchanged and raised the food, seed, and industrial use guess but lowered exports. The average farm price is estimated at $6.75 to $7.65 per bushel, compared to the previous projection of $6.80 to $8.00.

Domestic soybean ending stocks came out at 125 million bushels, compared to 135 million last month and 169 million last year, with USDA make a slight upward adjustment to crush demand. Before the report, traders saw ending stocks at 129 million bushels. The average farm price is estimated at $13.55 to $15.05, compared to the month ago range of $13.50 to $15.

On the international side of things, the Ag Department increased ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat. For both corn and soybeans, USDA raised the estimates for Brazil’s current crops and lowered the outlooks for Argentine production.

The next set of supply and demand estimates is out March 8.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:


2012/13 U.S. wheat ending stocks came out at 691 million bushels, compared to 716 million in January and the 2011/12 total of 743 million bushels. USDA raised feed and residual use 25 million bushels to 375 million, putting domestic use at 1.400 billion bushels and total use at 2.450 billion bushels. The average farm price is estimated at $7.70 to $8.10 per bushel, compared to the month ago range of $7.65 to $8.15 and the 2011/12 average of $7.24.

2012/13 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 632 million bushels, compared to 602 million last month and 989 million last year. USDA increased food, seed, and industrial use 20 million bushels to 5.887 billion, taking domestic use to 10.337 billion bushels, but cut exports 50 million to 900 million bushels, putting total use at 11.237 billion bushels. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $6.75 to $7.65 per bushel, compared to $6.80 to $8 a month ago and $6.22 for 2011/12.

2012/13 U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 125 million bushels, compared to 135 million a month ago and 169 million a year ago. The sole change to the balance sheet was an increase of 10 million bushels in crush use, up to 1.615 billion bushels, putting total use at 3.080 billion. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $13.55 to $15.05 per bushel, compared to $13.50 to $15 last month and the 2011/12 average of $12.50.

2012/13 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are estimated at 1.665 billion pounds, compared to 1.540 billion in January and 2.540 billion for 2011/12. Production is pegged at 18.975 billion pounds, up 275 million on the month, for a total supply of 21.865 billion pounds. Exports were raised 150 million pounds to 2.300 billion for total use of 20.200 billion pound. The average farm price is estimated at $.49 to $.53 per pound, steady with last month; the 2011/12 average was $.5190 per pound.

2012/13 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks were unchanged on the month and year at 300,000 short tons. USDA raised production 250,000 short tons to 38.450 million, increased domestic disappearance 150,000 short tons to 29.900 million and upped exports 100,000 short tons to 8.800 million short tons, putting total use at 38.700 million. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $430 to $460 per short ton, steady with a month ago and well above the 2011/12 average of $393.53.

2012/13 world wheat ending stocks came out at 176.73 million tons, compared to 176.64 million in January. Production is seen at 653.61 million tons, compared to 654.31 million a month ago with smaller projections for Brazil, Kazakhstan, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states cancelling out an increase for Ukraine. Domestic feed use is pegged at 133.06 million tons, compared to 132.76 million last month, and exports are estimated at 131.67 million tons, compared to 131.97 million a month ago.

2012/13 world corn ending stocks were reported at 118.04 million tons, compared to the previous guess of 115.99 million. Global production is projected at 854.38 million tons, compared to 852.30 million in January. USDA raised outlooks for Brazil, Mexico, Ukraine, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states and cut the estimate for Argentina. Domestic feed use is seen at 520.24 million tons, compared to 521.71 million a month ago, and exports are expected to be 90.03 million tons, compared to 89.77 million a month ago.

2012/13 world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 60.12 million tons, compared to 59.46 million in January. Production was up slightly but nearly unchanged on the month at 269.50 million tons due to an increase for Brazil offsetting a decrease for Argentina. Domestic crush demand is placed at 232.06 million tons, compared to 232.44 million a month ago, and exports are pegged at 98.86 million tons, compared to 98.90 million in January’s report.

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