Ag News for America
This year it’s anticipated that soybean yields will be highly variable; the exceptional drought is responsible for that. But Asgrow Brand Manager Dan Kurdys says the company is trying to create a four-step framework to organize tools and information to sustainably increase soybean yields annually.
“That four-piece system is plan, plant, protect, perform,” Kurdys tells Brownfield. That, he says, includes selecting products appropriate for the acres on which they’re to be planted.
A mixed day in the dairy markets on Thursday, cash cheese barrels were down a quarter-cent while blocks increased 2 cents. Cash butter and nonfat dry milk prices held steady while Class III futures were mostly lower.
National Dairy Products Prices for the week ending September 1, cheddar cheese blocks averaged $1.85 up 3.5 cents from a week ago. Barrels decreased 0.1 cent to average $1.83 per pound. Butter increased 1.1 cents to average $1.77 per pound, dry whey up 1.2 cents to 56 cents per pound, nonfat dry milk averaged $1.33 up 3 cents from a week ago.
USDA reports some dairy plant operators in the Central United States have been getting requests from farmers to test milk for aflatoxin. Some concerns with the new corn silage being chopped off in the drought-stricken areas.
Milk production in Florida remains at or near seasonal lows, 72 loads were imported this week to meet Class I demand in the Sunshine State. 20 loads were shipped into the other southeastern states; some bottling plants were shut down by Hurricane Isaac last week pushing more milk into manufacturing plants.
Out west, moderating weather conditions have California production trending higher, New Mexico is running below year-ago levels and processing plants are operating on reduced schedules.
One of the largest players in crop protection is addressing the issue of weed resistance to the herbicide glyphosate, better known as Roundup. Chris Reat, Monsanto’s Roundup Ready Plus marketing manager, says the program exists to provide answers to resistance challenges for Monsanto’s farmer customers. The products are primarily pre-emerge ones and are the result of cooperation among traditional competitors in the field, according to Reat.
“I think it made it real for people to see that this is an industry initiative; this is not something Monsanto’s solely driving,” Reat told Brownfield Ag News at the Farm Progress Show. “It’s so important for farmers to have options for weed control, that many companies are willing to step up to the plate, join together and provide solutions.”
Soybeans were lower on technical selling. At this point, the trade’s watching the export market, early harvest activity, and getting ready for next week’s USDA numbers. Ahead of the report, there are some expectations for an increased production estimate following the rain late last month. The numbers are out Wednesday, September 12 at 7:30 AM Central. Soybean meal was mostly higher and oil was down on the readjustment of product spreads. USDA’s weekly export sales report is out Thursday at 7:30 AM Central. Soybeans are pegged at 600,000 to 775,000 tons, meal is seen at 135,000 to 200,000 tons, and oil is placed at 20,000 to 50,000 tons.
Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying, along with spillover from the outside markets. Unknown destinations bought 217,424 tons of U.S. corn with 184,912 tons of that for delivery during the current marketing year and 32,512 tons for delivery next marketing year, after September 1, 2013. Past that – the trade expects a bullish set of USDA numbers next week. Ethanol futures were higher. According to Dow Jones Newswires, South Korea’s Nonghyup Feed bought 124,000 tons of corn from Brazil due to its’ discount to Indian feed wheat. Brazil’s CONAB projects 2011/12 corn exports at a record 16 million tons. Weekly U.S. corn exports are estimated at 200,000 to 350,000 tons.
The wheat complex was higher on the lower dollar, short covering, and technical buying. Egypt bought Black Sea origin and Romanian wheat, but paid prices close to U.S. levels, so it looks like the export competition gap may be narrowing. Cairo picked up a total of 475,000 tons – 300,000 tons Russian, 120,000 tons Romanian, and 55,000 tons Ukrainian. Soft red winter areas got some rain but the hard red winter region remains dry and Black Sea wheat yields continue to look disappointing. Russia’s Ag Ministry states the year to date wheat harvest is 33.6 million tons, compared to 41 million this time last year. European wheat was higher following the European Common Bank announced the purchase of government bonds. Iraq issued a tender for 50,000 tons of optional origin wheat. Weekly U.S. wheat sales are projected at 375,000 to 600,000 tons.
Just how much impact has the drought had on the nation’s cow herd?
Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist Derrell Peel is still trying to get handle on that one.
Peel points out that beef cow slaughter for the year to date is down nearly 11 percent from last year, a smaller decline than previously expected.
But a big question, Peel says, is what’s happening with replacement heifers.
“Depending on the drought’s impact, folks may be using a smaller percentage of those heifers and being forced to go ahead and market some of them,” Peel says. “On the other hand, they may be using this as an opportunity to market cull cows, but going ahead and replacing them with younger females, thereby sort of changing the productivity of the herd—so we really won’t know for a while.”
Peel says another important question is whether producers have made enough adjustments to their herds relative to forage conditions and winter hay supplies. He says additional cow culling may be needed this fall.
“I think we may well see a strong ,or perhaps—in a relative sense—a more accelerated culling as folks really come to grips with the idea that maybe they just don’t have enough feed and forage resources to get through the winter,” he says.
Peel says the current pace of beef cow slaughter implies a herd culling rate of 11.4 percent. That is above the long-term average of 9.6 percent, but well below the 2011 rate of 12.3 percent.
So with all that said…
“My best estimate right now would be that we’ll probably see a 2 to 2 1/4 percent decrease in the beef cow herd come January 1st of 2013.”
But Peel says it all depends on how much adjustment to limited forage supplies has already been done and how much more might be needed in the next couple of months.
AUDIO: Derrell Peel (5:48 MP3)
The remnants of Hurricane Isaac delivered some much-needed rain to the Midwest last week. The weekly Drought Monitor from USDA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows the 9-state area went from 33 percent extreme and 7 percent exceptional drought to 14 and 0.93 percent this week.
Indiana went from 39 percent extreme drought and 10.8 percent exceptional drought to “zero” in both categories this week. More than half of the Hoosier State is still in severe drought.
Missouri went from 97 percent extreme and 35 percent exceptional to 3 percent exceptional and 31 percent extreme drought this week. 97 percent of the Show Me State is still in severe drought.
Illinois also saw substantial improvement, exceptional drought area went from 7.8 percent to “zero”, extreme drought dropped from 69.5 percent to 6.9 percent and severe drought fell from 94 percent of the state to 56 percent.
Things went the other way in Iowa where none of the state was in exceptional drought last week now 2.3 percent in the northwest corner slipped into that category and extreme drought now covers 62 percent of the state compared to 58 percent last week.
It’s getting drier in northern Wisconsin, 88.8 percent of the Badger State is now abnormally dry compared to 50 percent last week. 47 percent of the state is in at least moderate drought, 29 percent severe and 6 percent extreme, all about the same as a week ago.
Meanwhile, the drought intensified in the High Plains with 61 percent now in extreme drought and 24.5 percent exceptional compared to 54 and 15 percent last week. 88 percent of Kansas is now in extreme drought with 60.6 percent exceptional.
The amount of Nebraska in extreme drought held steady at 97 percent but the exceptional drought now covers more than 70 percent of the Cornhusker State compared to 23 percent a week ago.
South Dakota saw a 23-point increase in the extreme drought area now covering just under half of the state and for the first time, there is exceptional drought over the southeastern 4.7 percent of the state.
Overall in the continental United States things did not change much from a week ago: 77.4 percent is abnormally dry, 63.4 percent is in moderate drought, 42.5 percent is severe drought, 21.45 percent extreme drought and 6.14 percent in exceptional drought as of September 4th.
The Nebraska Department of Agriculture has confirmed nine cases of Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD) in cattle throughout Nebraska.
According to the department’s public information officer, Christin Kamm, the disease has been affecting Nebraska’s deer population since the 1970’s and is transmitted from deer to cattle by biting insects called midges.
“Unfortunately, this disease has no preventative measures or treatment options for the affected cattle,” Kamm says. “Hot and dry conditions that we’ve really been experiencing all across the state have contributed to the number of cases we are seeing—and the first frost should eliminate those disease-carrying midges.”
There are many symptoms associated with EHD. Some of them are fever, anorexia, swollen eyes and redness and scaling of the nose and lips.
The disease is not contagious, but producers who suspect EHD are urged to contact their veterinarian immediately.
AUDIO: Christin Kamm (2:11 MP3)
The cash cattle trade was at a standstill on Thursday afternoon, and it looks like significant trade will not develop until Friday. Feedlot operators are firm in their resolve and are holding out for asking prices of 126.00 plus in the South and 195.00 to 197.00 plus in the North. But packers are bidding 120.00 to 122.00 live and 188.00 to 189.00 dressed. Packers are short bought but clearly don’t like the current processing margins. The cattle kill is estimated at 124,000 head, even with last week, but 4,000 less than a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values were steady to firm on moderate demand and offerings. Choice beef was up .42 at 191.56, and select ended .03 higher at 181.86.
Live cattle contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange closed 22 higher to 27 lower on light to moderate pressure that developed through the live market with the early support in the corn market able to hold creating additional concern about higher production costs. Although boxed beef values are still building support, the lack of buyer interest in the market at the end of the week created a concerned tone in the nearby issues. October settled .27 lower at 126.05, and December was down .05 at 129.20.
Feeder cattle contracts settled 42 to 95 points in the red on the gains in the corn futures contracts. Trading was light and traders focused on the uncertainty in the live cattle futures market. September settled .42 lower at 144.62, and October was down .87 at 146.25.
Sep. corn closed at $7.97 and 1/4, up 7 and 1/2 cents
Sep. soybeans closed at $17.44 and 1/2, down 3 and 1/2 cents
Sep. soybean meal closed at $531.80, down 20 cents
Sep. soybean oil closed at 56.78, down 58 points
Sep. wheat closed at $8.72, up 26 and 1/4 cents
Oct. live cattle closed at $126.05, down 27 cents
Oct. lean hogs closed at $71.75, down $1.87
Oct. crude oil closed at $95.53, up 17 cents
Oct. cotton closed at 75.59, up 70 points
Sep. Class III milk closed at $18.86, up 8 cents
Sep. gold closed at $1,702.60, up $11.80
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 13,292.00, up 244.52 points
Extremely variable—that’s how many farmers are describing their corn yields so far.
Myron Ehresman, who farms near Anamosa in east-central Iowa, began combining his 1,100 acres of stressed corn last weekend.
“In some places it’s making 200 bushels—but on the same row, same variety, not too far away, it might only be making 10,” Ehresman says, “and it seems like those areas where it’s only making 10 to 30 are a lot bigger than those areas where it’s making 180 to 200.”
Ehresman says the corn planted on the lighter, sandy soils doesn’t have any ears to speak of.
Dave Miller is in Lucas County in south-central Iowa. He says their corn has been averaging 75 to 80 bushels per acre, but with lots of variability in both yield and moisture.
“There are spots as low as 40 (bushels) and probably some spots up in the 120 range—and there’s variability just going down the row,” Miller says. “You’ll probably be running 13.5 to 14.0 moisture and then all of a sudden you’ll hit a patch that’s probably at 20—but those tend to be short-lived and then you’re back to some real dry corn.”
Miller, who is also the research director for Iowa Farm Bureau, says their most recent load tested at 13.5 percent moisture.
Radio Iowa contributed to this report.
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