With the decreased production estimate, USDA’s made a big cut to the projected new crop corn ending stocks.
For the marketing year that starts September 1, new crop corn ending stocks are seen at 650 million bushels, compared to 1.183 billion in July and 1.021 billion late this marketing year. The Ag Department lowered the production guess more than 2 billion bushels, while more than doubling the import projection and cutting total use nearly 1.5 billion bushels. The average farm price is estimated at $7.50 to $8.90 per bushel, compared to July’s range of $5.40 to $6.40 and current marketing year estimate of $6.20 to $6.30 per bushel.
New crop soybean ending stocks are projected at 115 million bushels, compared to 130 million a month ago and 145 million for the current marketing year. USDA lowered the production estimate by 358 million bushels, increased the import guess, and lowered all the demand categories, except for seed use. The average farm price is pegged at $15 to $17 per bushel, compared to the month ago range of $13 to $15 and the estimate of $12.45 for the soon to end marketing year.
USDA raised the domestic wheat ending stocks estimate 34 million bushels to 698 million, but that’s still 45 million less than this time last year. Along with a modest increase to the crop production projection, USDA increased the import and feed use guesses. The average farm price is estimated at $7.60 to $9.00 per bushel, compared to $6.20 to $7.40 last month and $7.24 last year.
USDA’s lowered its world crop production estimates for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
This year’s global corn crop is projected at 849.01 million tons, down more than 56 million from July’s estimate, primarily on a decrease in U.S. crop size due to drought. The Ag Department did increase its estimates for Argentina, Brazil, China, Mexico, and South Africa.
World soybean production is seen at 260.46 million tons, 6.7 million less than last month, as a lower estimate for the U.S. cancels out an increase for Brazil.
The global wheat crop is pegged at 662.83 million tons, 2.5 million lower than a month ago. The Ag Department increased production estimates for the U.S., Canada, and India, while lowering the outlooks for Argentina, the European Union, and all of the former Soviet Union, except for Ukraine.
Breakdown of supply and demand tables:
2012/13 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 698 million bushels, compared to 664 million in July and 743 million at this point in 2011/12. Before the report, analysts projected stocks at 681 million bushels, in a range of 600 million to 718 million bushels. USDA raised production to 2.268 billion bushels with an average yield of 46.5 bushels per acre, while also raising imports to 130 million bushels, putting total supply at 3.141 billion bushels. Total use was increased 20 million bushels to 2.443 billion bushels on expectations for a 20 million bushel rise in feed and residual demand, with the other categories unchanged. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $7.60 to $9 per bushel, compared to $6.20 to $7.40 a month ago and $7.24 a year ago.
2011/12 U.S. corn ending stocks were pegged at 1.021 billion bushels, compared to 903 million last month and 1.128 billion last year. Pre-report estimates ranged from 750 million to 1.183 billion bushels, for an average of 945 million. The average farm price for the 2011/12 marketing year, which ends August 31, is estimated at $6.20 to $6.30 per bushel, compared to the 2010/11 average of $5.18.
2012/13 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 650 million bushels, compared to 1.183 billion a month ago, and in-line with pre-report expectations. With USDA slashing the production estimate by more than 2 billion bushels and raising imports 45 million to 75 million bushels, the total supply is seen at 11.875 billion bushels. Feed use was lowered 725 million bushels to 4.075 billion, food, seed, and industrial use was cut 470 million to 5.85 billion bushels, and ethanol use was reduced 400 million to 4.5 billion bushels, putting domestic use at 9.925 billion bushels. USDA also cut export demand by 300 million bushels to 1.3 billion, taking total use to 11.225 billion bushels. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $7.50 to $8.90 bushels per acre, compared to July’s range of $5.40 to $6.40.
2011/12 U.S. soybean ending stocks came out at 145 million bushels, compared to 170 million in July and the 2010/11 total of 215 million bushels. Analysts were estimating stocks at 157 million bushels, in a range of 138 million to 200 million bushels. The average 2011/12 farm price is estimated at $12.45 per bushel, compared to $11.30 for 2010/11.
2012/13 U.S. soybean ending stocks are estimated at 115 million bushels, compared to 130 million last month, matching the average of analysts’ estimates. USDA lowered the production guess 358 million bushels while raising imports 5 million to 20 million, taking total supply to 2.857 billion bushels. The crush use estimate was cut 95 million bushels to 1.515 billion and exports were reduced 260 million to 1.110 billion, and residual use was lowered 8 million to 27 million bushels, putting total use at 2.742 billion bushels. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $15 to $17 per bushel, compared to $13 to $15 in July.
2011/12 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks were reported at 2.585 billion pounds, compared to 2.425 billion at this stage of 2010/11. The average farm price is estimated at $.5175 per pound, compared to $.5320 a year ago.
2012/13 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks came out at 1.295 billion pounds, compared to 2.005 billion last month. On the heels of USDA reducing the soybean crop estimate, bean oil production is pegged at 17.315 billion pounds, putting total supply at 20.095 billion pounds. Domestic use was lowered 400 million pounds to 17.6 billion and exports were reduced 50 million to 1.2 billion, taking total use to 18.8 billion. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $.53 to $.57 per pound, compared to $.5250 to $.5650 a month ago.
2011/12 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks were pegged at 300,000 short tons, compared to 350,000 last year. The average farm price is estimated at $390 per short ton, compared to $345.52 in 2010/11.
2012/13 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks were reported at 300,000 short tons, unchanged on the month. Following USDA’s cut in the soybean crop projection, meal production is now seen at 36 million short tons; imports were raised 35,000 to 300,000 short tons, taking total supply to 36.6 million. Domestic use was lowered 500,000 short tons to 29.3 million and exports were reduced 1.1 million to 7 million short tons, putting total use at 36.3 million. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $460 to $490 per short ton, compared to July’s range of $365 to $395.
2012/13 world wheat ending stocks came out at 177.17 million tons, compared to 182.44 million in July. Production is estimated at 662.83 million tons, compared to 665.33 million a month ago. USDA increased its outlooks for the U.S., Canada, India, North Africa, and Ukraine, while lowering projections for the other former Soviet states, Argentina, and the European Union. Domestic feed use is pegged at 134.09 million tons, compared to 130.33 million last month, and exports are seen at 135.21 million tons, compared to 134.71 million a month ago.
2012/13 world corn ending stocks were reported at 123.33 million tons, compared to 134.09 million last month. The global crop is expected to be around 849.01 million tons, compared to 905.23 million in July. USDA slashed the U.S. estimate and made comparatively small downward adjustments for Canada, the European Union, Ukraine, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states while increasing the outlooks for Argentina, Brazil, China, Mexico, and South Africa. Feed use is projected at 508.74 million tons, compared to 535.95 million a month ago, and exports are seen at 92.78 million tons, compared to 98.30 million in July’s update.
2012/13 world soybean ending stocks were pegged at 53.38 million tons, compared to 55.66 million a month ago. The world crop is projected at 260.46 million tons, compared to 267.16 million in July as reduced estimates for the U.S. and European Union offset an increased outlook for Brazil. Domestic crush use is estimated at 227.03 million tons, compared to 232.39 million tons last month, and exports are seen at 93.97 million tons, compared to 95.82 million in July.
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