Market News

USDA cuts corn, soybean estimates again

For the second month in a row, USDA’s made substantial cuts to the 2012 corn and soybean production estimates because of widespread drought.

USDA currently sees this year’s corn crop at 10.779 billion bushels, down 13% from 2011’s total and potentially the lowest since 2006. Before the report, analysts pegged corn at 10.971 billion bushels. The average yield is estimated at 123.4 bushels per acre, smaller than the trade was expecting and possibly the lowest since 1995. In July, USDA saw yield at 146 bushels per acre and the 2011 average was 147.2 bushels per acre. 2012 harvested area is seen at 87.361 million acres, compared to 83.981 million in 2011.

Soybeans are projected at 2.692 billion bushels, a potential 12% year to year decrease, with the average yield at 36.1 bushels per acre, which would be the lowest since 2003. A month ago, USDA had the crop at 3.050 billion bushels with an average yield of 40.5 bushels per acre, and the 2011 crop totaled 3.056 billion bushels, with an average yield of 41.5 bushels per acre. The average pre-report estimate for beans was 2.786 billion bushels with a yield of 37.2 bushels per acre. Harvested acreage is projected at 74.635 million acres, compared to the year ago total of 73.636 million.

This year’s total wheat crop is seen at 2.268 billion bushels, up 2% on the month and 13% on the year, with the average yield at 46.5 bushels per acre. Before the report, the average guess was 2.220 billion bushels, July’s estimate was 2.224 billion and the 2011 crop totaled 1.999 billion bushels.

Winter wheat is pegged at 1.683 billion bushels with an average yield of 48 bushels per acre with hard red at 1.012 billion bushels, soft red at 435.059 million, and white winter at 235.526 million bushels. In 2011, winter wheat totaled 1.494 billion bushels with an average yield of 46.2 bushels per acre. By class, hard red was 780.089 million bushels, soft red was 457.535 million bushels, and white winter was 256.053 million bushels. Harvested area for winter wheat is seen at 35.023 million acres, compared to 32.314 million last year.

Spring wheat is estimated at 499.510 million bushels with an average yield of 42.8 bushels per acre, compared to 455.188 million bushels with an average yield of 37.7 bushel per acre. Harvested area is seen at 11.681 million acres, compared to 12.079 million a year ago.

Durum production is projected at 86.010 million and an average yield of 40.5 bushels per acre, compared to 2011’s finals of 50.482 million bushels and yield of 38.5 bushels per acre. Harvested area is seen at 2.122 million acres, compared to 1.312 million in 2011.

Selected crops for Brownfield states:

Illinois: Corn: 1.462 billion bushels, compared to 1.947 billion in 2011; average yield of 116 bushels per acre, compared to 157 a year ago; harvested area of 12.6 million acres, compared to 12.4 million last year; Soybeans: 308.95 million bushels, compared to 416.42 million in 2011; average yield of 37 bushels per acre, compared to 47 a year ago; harvested area of 8.35 million acres, compared to 8.86 million last year; Wheat: 41.6 million bushels, compared to 46.665 million in 2011; average yield of 65 bushels per acre, compared to 64 a month ago and 61 a year ago; harvested area of 640,000 acres, compared to 765,000 last year.

Indiana: Corn: 605 million bushels, compared to 839.5 million in 2011; average yield of 100 bushels per acre, compared to 146 a year ago; harvested area of 6.05 million acres, compared to 5.75 million last year; Soybeans: 184.63 million bushels, compared to 238.05 million in 2011; average yield of 37 bushels per acre, compared to 45 a year ago; harvested area of 4.99 million acres, compared to 5.29 million last year; Wheat: 22.11 million acres, compared to 24.8 million in 2011; average yield of 67 bushels per acre, compared to 65 a month ago and 62 a year ago; harvested area of 330,000 acres, compared to 400,000 last year.

Iowa: Corn: 1.918 billion bushels, compared to 2.356 billion in 2011; average yield of 141 bushels per acre, compared to 172 a year ago; harvested area of 13.6 million acres, compared to 13.7 million last year; Soybeans: 405.92 million bushels, compared to 466.115 million in 2011; average yield of 43 bushels per acre, compared to 50.5 a year ago; harvested area of 9.44 million acres, compared to 9.23 million last year.

Missouri: Corn: 251.25 million bushels, compared to 349.98 million in 2011; average yield of 75 bushels per acre, compared to 114 a year ago; harvested area of 3.35 million acres, compared to 3.07 million last year; Soybeans: 154.5 million bushels, compared to 189.8 million in 2011; average yield of 30 bushels per acre, compared to 36.5 a year ago; harvested area of 5.15 million acres, compared to 5.2 million last year; Wheat: 40.02 million bushels, compared to 34 million in 2011; average yield of 58 bushels per acre, compared to 56 a month ago and 50 a year ago; harvested area of 690,000 acres, compared to 680,000 last year.

Nebraska: Corn: 1.338 billion bushels, compared to 1.536 billion in 2011; average yield of 147 bushels per acre, compared to 160 a year ago; harvested area of 9.1 million acres, compared to 9.6 million last year; Soybeans: 215 million bushels, compared to 258.405 million in 2011; average yield of 43 bushels per acre, compared to 53.5 a year ago; harvested area of 5 million acres, compared to 4.83 million last year; Wheat: 55.44 million bushels, compared to 65.25 million in 2011; average yield of 42 bushels per acre, compared to 42 a month ago and 45 a year ago; harvested area of 1.32 million acres, compared to 1.45 million last year.

Ohio: Corn: 456.12 million bushels, compared to 508.76 million in 2011; average yield of 126 bushels per acre, compared to 158 a year ago; harvested area of 3.62 million acres, compared to 3.22 million last year; Soybeans: 192.36 million bushels, compared to 215.65 million in 2011; average yield of 42 bushels per acre, compared to 47.5 a year ago; harvested area of 4.58 million acres, compared to 4.54 million last year; Wheat: 35.175 million bushels, compared to 49.3 million in 2011; average yield of 67 bushels per acre, compared to 67 a month ago and 58 a year ago; harvested area of 525,000 acres, compared to 850,000 last year.

South Dakota: Corn: 519.4 million acres, compared to 653.4 million in 2011; average yield of 98 bushels per acre, compared to 132 a year ago; harvested area of 5.3 million acres, compared to 4.95 million last year; Soybeans: 137.95 million bushels, compared to 150.59 million in 2011; average yield of 31 bushels per acre, compared to 37 a year ago; harvested area of 4.45 million acres, compared to 4.07 million last year; Winter Wheat: 62.4 million acres, compared to 66.78 million in 2011; average yield of 48 bushels per acre, compared to 43 a month ago and 42 a year ago; harvested area of 1.3 million acres, compared to 1.59 million last year; Spring Wheat: 43.87 million bushels, compared to 37.82 million in 2011; average yield of 41 bushels per acre, compared to 35 a month ago and 31 a year ago; harvested area of 1.07 million acres, compared to 1.22 million last year.

Wisconsin: Corn: 455.4 million bushels, compared to 517.92 million in 2011; average yield of 132 bushels per acre, compared to 156 a year ago; harvested area of 3.45 million acres, compared to 3.32 million last year; Soybeans: 60.48 million bushels, compared to 73.6 million in 2011; average yield of 36 bushels per acre, compared to 46 a year ago; harvested area of 1.68 million acres, compared to 1.6 million last year; Wheat: 18 million bushels, compared to 21.775 million in 2011; average yield of 72 bushels per acre, compared to 69 a month ago and 65 a year ago; harvested area of 250,000 acres, compared to 335,000 last year.