Weather again supports grains, oilseeds

Soybeans were sharply higher on speculative and commercial buying. Coming back from the midweek holiday, beans have continued support from the hot, dry weather across some key U.S. growing areas. There’s an improved weather pattern in the forecast but with the South American crop loss, there’s not much room for U.S. crop loss. Still, if there’s a beneficial change in conditions, soybeans will benefit much more than corn. Soybean meal and oil followed the bean pit higher. USDA’s weekly export sales report is out Friday at 7:30 AM Central, delayed a day by Wednesday’s holiday. Soybeans are pegged at 450,000 to 700,000 tons, meal is seen at 150,000 to 250,000 tons, and oil is placed at 5,000 to 20,000 tons.

Corn was sharply higher on commercial and speculative buying. Corn also received more support from the hot, dry near term forecast across major parts of the Cornbelt. There’s some cooler weather in the forecast for late this weekend but precipitation is expected to be below average and the crop really needs rain. Ethanol futures were higher. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization lowered its’ U.S. corn outlook 25 million tons, to 350 million tons. Brazil’s CONAB pegs 2011/12 summer corn production at 34.57 million tons with exports at 12 million tons; the total corn crop is projected at 69.48 million tons, up 21% on the year. Weekly U.S. corn sales are estimated at 200,000 and 500,000 tons.

The wheat complex was sharply higher on speculative and commercial buying. The complex has an eye on world weather problems and fundamentals for Chicago and Kansas City are turning bullish. USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out Wednesday, July 11 at 7:30 AM Central. European wheat was sharply higher on the lower Euro and global crop issues. German farmers’ association DBV lowered its harvested acreage estimate by 10% from 2011 due to weather problems. Russia’s Ag Ministry reports 4.7% of its 2012 grain crop is harvested and Ukraine’s Ag Ministry states 17% of their crop is harvested, with both ahead of normal because of hot, dry conditions in key growing areas. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 64.3% of Argentina’s wheat crop is planted, with acreage below initial expectations due to government export limits. Japan’s tendering for 60,175 tons of Australian milling wheat and in sell-buy-sell activity, is in the market for 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley. Dow Jones Newswires reports Jordan is postponing a tender for 100,000 tons of wheat due to a lack of offers. Weekly U.S. wheat sales are projected at 300,000 to 450,000 tons.


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