USDA made month to month reductions for old and new crop soybean and wheat ending stocks while leaving both marketing years for corn unchanged from May.
Old crop wheat ending stocks were pegged at 728 million bushels, down 40 million from last month, with new crop at 694 million bushels, 41 million less than a month ago. The new marketing year for wheat started June 1.
2011/12 corn is estimated at 851 million bushels with 2012/13 at 1.881 billion bushels, with no changes to either balance sheet.
Old crop soybeans are placed at 175 million bushels, 35 million lower than last month, and new crop is projected at 140 million bushels, 5 million less than a month ago.
USDA made slight adjustments to its 2011/12 South American corn and soybean production estimates. For Brazil, USDA has corn at 69 million tons and beans at 65.50 million, while for Argentina, corn is pegged at 21 million tons with soybeans at 41.50 million. Next marketing year’s corn crop for Brazil is estimated at 67 million tons with beans at 78 million, while Argentina’s next corn crop is projected at 25 million tons with beans at 55 million tons.
USDA anticipates continued strong soybean demand for China next marketing year. The Ag Department has Chinese soybean imports during the 2012/13 marketing year at 61 million tons, compared to 57 million this marketing year, and 52.34 million last marketing year. The U.S. is China’s biggest supplier of soybeans, along with Argentina and Brazil.
Breakdown of grain and oilseed supply and demand estimates:
2011/12 U.S. wheat ending stocks are pegged at 728 million bushels, compared to 768 million in May, and the 2010/11 final of 862 million bushels. Ahead of the report, the average guess was 757 million bushels, with estimates ranging from 727 million to 775 million bushels. The average farm price is estimated at $7.25 per bushel, compared to $5.70 in 2010/11. The 2011/12 marketing year for wheat ended May 31.
2012/13 U.S. wheat ending stocks came out at 694 million bushels, compared to 735 million a month ago, with the average pre-report guess at 728 million bushels. With USDA lowering the expected yield for all wheat by three tenths of a bushel to 45.4 bushels per acre, production is estimated at 2.234 billion bushels, down 11 million on the month, putting total supply at 3.082 billion bushels; that also takes into account the 40 million bushel reduction in beginning stocks or 2011/12 ending stocks. Feed and residual use was lowered 10 million bushels to 220 million bushels, taking domestic use to 1.238 billion, and with exports unchanged at 1.150 billion bushels total use is pegged at 2.388 billion bushels. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $5.60 to $6.80 per bushel, compared to the month ago range of $5.50 to $6.70.
2011/12 U.S. corn ending stocks were unchanged on the month at 851 million bushels. For comparison’s sake, 2010/11 U.S. corn ending stocks were 1.128 billion bushels. Before the report, analysts were projecting ending stocks at 688 million to 901 million bushels, with the average at 828 million bushels. The average 2011/12 farm price is estimated at $5.95 to $6.25 per bushel, compared to $5.18 in 2010/11.
2012/13 U.S. corn ending stocks were also unchanged on the month at 1.881 billion bushels, with no changes to the balance sheet. Ahead of the report, estimates ranged from 1.223 billion to 1.950 billion bushels, with the average guess at 1.740 billion bushels. The 2012/13 estimated farm price was also steady with May at $4.20 to $5.00 per bushel.
2011/12 U.S. soybean ending stocks were reported at 175 million bushels, compared to 210 million a month ago, and the 2010/11 total of 215 million bushels. Pre-report expectations ranged from 170 million to 218 million bushels, for an average projection of 197 million bushels. The average 2011/12 farm price is estimated at $12.30 per bushel, compared to the 2010/11 final of $11.30.
2012/13 U.S. soybean ending stocks are placed at 140 million bushels, compared to 145 million last month. Analysts were expecting ending stocks to be up slightly at 147 million bushels, in a range of 112 million to 211 million bushels. On the month to month change in the old crop projection, total supply is pegged at 3.395 billion bushels, compared to 3.430 billion a month ago. The crush estimate was lowered 10 million bushels to 1.645 billion, while the export guess was decreased 20 million to 1.485 billion bushels. Seed use and residual use were left unchanged, at 89 million and 36 million bushels, respectively, putting total use at 3.255 billion bushels. The average 2012/13 farm price was unchanged from May at $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel.
2011/12 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks came out at 2.590 billion pounds, compared to 2.425 billion a year ago. The average 2011/12 farm price is estimated at $.5150 per pound, compared to $.5320 in 2010/11.
2012/13 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are projected at 2.135 billion pounds, compared to 2.225 billion last month. With beginning stocks now seen at 2.590 billion pounds and production pegged at 18.800 billion, total supply is estimated at 21.585 billion pounds. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $.5250 to $.5650 per pound, steady with a month ago.
2011/12 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks were reported at 300,000 short tons, compared to 350,000 at the end of the previous marketing year. The average 2011/12 farm price is estimated at $360 per short ton, compared to $345.52 in 2010/11.
2012/13 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks are estimated at 300,000 short tons, steady with last month. Production is expected to be around 39.135 million short tons, 300,000 less than a month ago, lowering total supply to 39.600 million. However, domestic demand was also lowered 300,000 short tons to 30.900 million, putting total use at 39.300 million short tons and leaving ending stocks unchanged. The average 2012/13 farm price is estimated at $335 to $365 per short ton, steady with the May projection.
2011/12 world wheat ending stocks are pegged at 195.56 million tons, compared to 197.23 million at the end of 2010/11. Global production is estimated at 694.17 million tons, up more than 40 million on the year, with domestic feed use at 148.29 million tons, and exports at 148.76 million tons.
2012/13 world wheat ending stocks came out at 185.76 million tons, compared to May’s estimate of 188.13 million. Production is expected to be around 672.06 million tons, down 5.5 million from a month ago on smaller estimates for the U.S., European Union, Russia, and the twelve smaller former Soviet states. Domestic feed use is pegged at 131.67 million tons, compared to 133.70 million last month, and exports are seen at 135.42 million tons, compared to 137.02 million a month ago.
2011/12 world corn ending stocks were reported at 129.19 million tons, compared to the 2010/11 total of 124.32 million. World production is projected at 872.98 million tons, up sharply from last year’s 829.12 million. Domestic feed use is estimated at 509.08 million tons and exports are placed at 96.41 million tons.
2012/13 world corn ending stocks are seen at 155.74 million tons, compared to 152.34 million a month ago. Global production is estimated at 949.93 million tons, compared to 945.78 million last month. USDA raised projections for the European Union and the twelve smaller former Soviet states while leaving other estimates unchanged. Domestic feed use is pegged at 553.31 million tons, compared to 549.54 million a month ago, and exports are placed at 105.32 million tons, compared to 104.22 million in May’s report.
2011/12 world soybean ending stocks are projected at 53.36 million tons, well below the 2010/11 total of 70.10 million. Production came out at 236.38 million, down from the year ago total of 264.69 million tons. Domestic crush use is pegged at 234.22 million tons and export demand is estimated at 97.26 million tons.
2012/13 world soybean ending stocks are expected to be 58.54 million tons, up slightly from May’s guess of 58.07 million. The world production estimate was lowered slightly to 271.03 million tons as a decrease for China partially offset an increase for the European Union. Domestic crush is projected at 234.05 million tons, compared to 234.22 million a month ago, and export use is pegged at 96.71 million tons, compared to 97.26 million in May.
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