Soybeans were higher on speculative buying and end of the month position squaring. The recent rainfall in Argentina has helped out beans but they’ll need to see a longer term weather change and southern Brazil remains hot and dry. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology notes La Nina has weakened slightly but remains at fairly high levels. ADM, via Dow Jones Newswires, sees South American production below initial expectations and notes totals may even fall below the 2011 finals. Past that – there was no fresh news and the outside markets were mostly bearish, limiting gains. Soybean meal and oil were up, following the lead of beans.
Corn was higher on end of the month purchasing and commercial buying. The rainfall in Argentina may have helped beans but its’ probably too late for their corn crop. According to Dow Jones Newswires, ADM sees USDA lowering South American production projections again February 9. Also, there’s talk that Japan will tender for a substantial amount of U.S. corn over the next several of weeks, following purchases of around 1.5 million tons from Europe. Dow Jones Newswires adds Japan has recently picked up 165,000 tons each of new crop corn and sorghum from Argentina. Ethanol futures were higher.
The wheat complex was higher on commercial and speculative buying. The trade’s watching the very cold conditions and probable winter kill around the Black Sea region and most of Eastern Europe. Additionally, Russia may add an export tax as early as this week and while Kazakhstan may fill some of the Russian void, transportation and logistics shortfalls will limit exports. Japan is in the market for 94,389 tons of U.S. milling wheat (38,569 tons dark northern spring, 33,225 tons western white, and 22,595 tons hard red winter) and Iraq tendering for 50,000 tons of wheat from any origin except Romania or the U.S., not because of political issues but because of transportation problems. Dow Jones does note 480,000 tons of grains, mostly wheat, are offshore of Iran, undeliverable because of sanctions against Tehran. European wheat was sharply higher on the crop concerns with estimates for winter kill starting to climb. USDA states 38% of Texas’ winter wheat crop is in poor to very poor condition with 24% good to excellent and 12% of Kansas’ crop is poor to very poor with 42% good and 7% excellent.
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