Friday 27th January 2012

Quiet, mostly higher finish for the year in grains and oilseeds

Soybeans were higher on speculative buying and short covering. Weekly export sales were at the high end of estimates, shipments were solid, and the trade continues to watch hot, dry weather in some of the key growing areas of South America. Commodity markets are closed Monday following the New Year with open outcry resuming at the normal time Tuesday morning. Soybean meal and oil were higher on spillover from beans and the fundamental implications of a smaller South American crop.

Corn was higher on speculative buying and short covering. Corn was also watching the weather in South America with mostly hot and dry conditions expected over the near term. Weekly export sales were lower than expected but shipments were more than what’s needed weekly to meet USDA projections for the marketing year. Ethanol futures were higher.

The wheat complex was mostly higher on short covering and speculative buying in Chicago and Kansas City. Minneapolis was narrowly mixed, mostly weak, in quiet activity, as traders adjusted the spread with Chicago. Wheat’s keeping an eye on South American conditions as well and also watching the dry weather across Ukraine. Weekly export sales were at the high end of estimates but physical shipments remain slower than expected and the overall supply and demand fundamentals remain bearish. European wheat futures were modestly lower in quiet trade on end of the year position squaring.

Russian company to curb phosphate production

One day after the Mosaic Company announced it was going to curtail phosphate fertilizer production for the first quarter, Russia’s largest phosphate company announced they are doing the same. Phosagro says it will reduce production of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP) by 18 percent in the first quarter.

Price seems to be the main reason for the cutbacks, Bloomberg reports since peaking in July, DAP prices have fallen around 15 percent in the U.S.

Just like Mosaic, officials with Phosagro say they expect demand to be strong and prices to rebound once the spring planting season gets going.

A little Rose Bowl wager

A friendly little wager on the Rose Bowl Game between Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.

Should the Ducks win, Kitzhaber will get a selection of Wisconsin cheeses, Leinenkugel’s beer, Blushing Rose Wine from Wollersheim Winery in Prairie du Sac and Andes mints produced in Governor Walker’s hometown of Delevan.

If the Badgers win, Walker gets a selection of Oregon’s craft beers, Kettle Chips, Oregon Hazelnuts and Smoked King Salmon.

A little less profitable on the farm in December

The Preliminary Index of Prices Received by Farmers in December fell 4.3 percent from November. The Crop Index was 7.3 percent lower while the Livestock Index increased 0.6 percent.

The National Ag Statistics Service says the December corn price averaged $5.44 per bushel down 40 cents from November. Soybeans were 60 cents lower at $11.10 while the all-wheat price fell 81 cents to average $6.45 per bushel. The all hay price increased $1.00 to $177 per ton.

In the Livestock Index, hogs were 40 cents lower at $64 per hundredweight while beef increased $1.00 to $121 per hundredweight. Broilers increased 2 cents per pound to 47 cents, turkeys slipped 2.6 cents to 75.4 cents per pound while eggs increased 23.8 cents to average $1.10 per dozen. The December all-milk price is down 60 cents from November at $19.80 per hundredweight.

The December Index of Prices Paid by Farmers is down 0.5 percent from November. Farmers paid less for feed grains, complete feeds, gasoline and diesel more than offsetting higher prices paid for feeder pigs, feeder cattle, mixed fertilizer and supplements.

For the year, the All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers is up 23 percent and the Prices Paid Index is up 8.5 percent.

Read the full NASS report here:

Dairy trending lower to close out the year

Milk checks will be a little smaller in January. The base milk prices for December milk for Class II $18.08 per hundred, down $1.18 from November but $2.31 higher than a year ago. The base Class III price for December is $18.77, down 30 cents from November but $4.94 above December of 2010. Class IV base $16.87, down a dollar from November, up $1.84 from a year ago. Component prices per pound for December: butterfat $1.7443, protein $3.3404, nonfat solids $1.2398, other solids $0.4683.

Cash dairy markets held steady to close out the week and the year on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Cash cheese barrels are at $1.58, blocks at $1.5625 and butter closed at $1.595. Class III futures for January slipped 19 cents to $17.26, February down 18 cents to $17.43, March down 8 cents at $17.46, April gained a penny to $17.36.

For the week, barrels up a quarter-cent, blocks increased 1.75 cents, butter was unchanged, January Class III futures gained 26 cents, February increased 31 cents, March up 42 cents, April increased 31 cents and June added 12 cents.

At the end of 2010, cash cheese barrels were $1.34, blocks were $1.3425, butter was $1.67 and Class III futures going into the first six months of 2011 averaged $14.21. Class III for the first six months of 2012 average $17.34.

The monthly index of prices received by farmers puts the cost of feed to produce a hundred pounds of milk at $10.53 while he December all-milk price comes in at $19.80 putting income over feed at $9.27 per hundred down 22 cents from November

Fort Wayne Farm Show nears

Purdue Extension specialist and educators will provide expertise through presentations and discussions at the upcoming 2012 Fort Wayne Farm Show.  The farm show will include a trade show featuring the latest in farm machinery and technology and educational seminars.  Seminars topics include: Land Lease Options, Farm Bill and Ag Policy and Grain and Livestock Market Outlook. 

Farmers this year will have the opportunity to participate in the Purdue Tillage Survey.  Steve Engleking, Purdue Extension natural resources educator says Purdue researchers will be recruiting farmers using conventional tillage to participate in a survey regarding their tillage choices.

The Fort Wayne Farm Show runs January 17-19 at the Allen County War Memorial Coliseum. 

For a complete schedule of events, click HERE

Losing fall applied NH3

While many growers across the Corn Belt practiced good stewardship in making their applications of fall Nitrogen, the unseasonably warm temperatures so far this winter could cause a significant loss of nutrients.  Mike Toohill, staff agronomist with Diversified Services says he doesn’t like what he’s seeing.  “With the warm weather instead of letting that nitrogen freeze up and rest of the winter, we’re slowly using up our inhibitor” he says.  “We’re in good shape as of today.”  But,  if that warmer weather continues – farmers could see nitrogen loss as early as February. 

Toohill says challenges producers faced in 2011 better prepared them for the coming growing season.  “This last year there were pretty significant responses with side dressed nitrogen – not a lot of pounds but enough,” he says.  “Often time 30-40 pounds is worth 15-20 bushels more.”

He tells Brownfield he gives growers a lot of credit.  “They’re doing a much better job watching their nitrogen, but also watching loss potentials.  With the current corn prices, farmers are putting the economics to it because $5-$7 corn just can’t be short of nitrogen.  It just doesn’t make sense economically – with the current state of the markets.”

Toohill says the best thing right now for that fall applied nitrogen?  Cold temperatures and snow.

A few cattle sell in the north at steady prices

USDA Mandatory reported a  light cattle trade developed in Nebraska and Iowa  on light to moderate demand with 202.00 being paid by regional’s, about steady with the previous week’s weighted average.  A few live sales traded in Iowa at 125.00 live. Majors were still bringing up the rear by late afternoon, bidding 198.00 to 200.00. There was some improvement in buying interest in the South and DTN reported they had heard of a few pens moving in Texas and Kansas at 121.00. Weekly slaughter was estimated at 539,000 head, 59,000 less than the previous week, and 28,000 less than last year.

Boxed beef cutout values were steady on light demand and offerings. Choice boxed beef was up .05 at 194.73, and select was unchanged at 179.44.

Live cattle contracts settled 10 to 90 points lower on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Friday. Traders focused on closing out the week, the month, and the quarter .Trade volume was very light as most traders had completed their business for the year. There was some shift in the markets near the end of the session as cash cattle trades were reported. The December contract expired at 122.90 up .32, and the only one higher. February was down .90 at 121.45, and April was .77 lower at 125.45.

Feeder cattle ended 10 to 100 points lower with trade pretty much undeveloped. Traders focused on year end positioning as well as potential cash market direction. January settled .52 lower at 146.35, and March was down 1.00 at 148.80.

[Read more...]

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: December 30, 2011

Mar. corn closed at $6.46 and 1/2, up 8 and 1/2 cents
Jan. soybeans closed at $11.98 and 1/2, up 11 cents
Jan. soybean meal closed at $309.40, up $2.80
Jan. soybean oil closed at 52.09, up 95 points
Mar. wheat closed at $6.52 and 3/4, up 7 and 1/2 cents
Feb. live cattle closed at $121.45, down 90 cents
Feb. lean hogs closed at $84.30, up 32 cents
Feb. crude oil closed at $98.83, down 82 cents
Mar. cotton closed at 91.80, up 17 points
Jan. Class III milk closed at $17.26, down 19 cents
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,217.56, down 69.48 points

Friday midday cash livestock markets

USDA Mandatory is reporting cattle trading is light in Eastern Nebraska on light to moderate demand. Compared to last week, early dressed sales are mostly steady at 202.00 on a dressed basis. Trading remains inactive in all other regions. Packer inquiry continues light with just a few bids renewed in the South at 119.00, way below the asking prices of around 125.00 live.

Boxed beef cutout values are mixed, choice beef is down .08 at 194.60, and the select is up.27 at 179.71.

Feeder cattle receipts at Missouri auctions totaled 4855 head. Compared to last week there were not enough feeders for a market comparison, however a higher undertone was noted. Many auction rings were dark as most barns were closed for the shortened holiday week. Coffee shops are abuzz over anticipation as to what next week will bring as historically the first week of the new year is the largest of the year for reported auction receipts. Feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing 570 pounds traded at 159.48 per hundredweight. 576 pound heifers traded at an average of 132.23.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota and Western direct trade areas are not reported due to confidentiality. Nationally barrows and gilts are .21 lower on a carcass basis at 78.23; the East is down .53 at 77.82. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady from 75.00 to 77.00. Peoria is the only terminal reporting hog prices; the market there is steady from 53.50 to 54.00 live.

On the positive side, the seasonal index for lean hog futures points higher into the late winter and spring and it would seem as though the market is primed and ready to move higher if some relief can come on the supply side which would allow cash prices to turn back higher.