Friday 27th January 2012

Some New Zealand dairy plants back on-line

Dairy producers on New Zealand’s north island are still dumping some milk. Gas supplies to the island were cut off when a leak was discovered in the main pipeline supplying the island on Monday night. Commercial users including 15 Fonterra dairy plants were shut down due to the lack of gas. An estimated 35 million liters (9.2 million gallons) of milk were dumped on Tuesday.

All but three of the plants were able to restart on Wednesday thanks to a smaller back-up pipeline. As a result, the co-op says it was able to collect and process about two-thirds of the milk in the area but another 11 million liters (2.9 million gallons) of milk were dumped Wednesday. By Thursday, that number was down to five million liters (1.3 million gallons) dumped.

The cooperative is advising farmers that the availability of gas remains limited and they may have to shut some of the plants down again. The pipeline management company says the main line will be back by the weekend.

This comes at a most inopportune time as milk production has been strong in New Zealand and plants were running full-out. The first question is how long will it take to get back to full capacity? Second question is how will this affect product availability? The third question; who is going to pay for the lost milk?

White-Nose Syndrome cause identified

Researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison say they have found the cause of White-Nose Syndrome in bats. It is estimated the fungus has killed over two million hibernating bats in more than 15 states and 2 Canadian provinces. Most susceptible has been the little brown bat however at least five other hibernating species have been affected by the fungus.

The U.W. scientists say the disease is caused by a fungus called “Geo-myces Destructans” which is common in Europe but was first discovered in the U.S. about five years ago.

Now that the source is known researchers will try to figure out how it kills bats and how to stop it. So far they know that hibernating bats infected with the fungus awake as often as every 3 to 4 days instead of the usual 10 to 20 days. About 90 percent of the bats die from starvation

Interest rate cut on large bank ag loans

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City says larger banks (with portfolios of more than $25 Million) cut interest rates on non-real-estate loans in the third quarter, boosting farm lending. According to the Fed’s Agricultural Finance Data, national farm lending was flat and while small and medium-sized banks extended variable rates on less than half their loans, large banks, on average, cut interest rates to 3.6 percent during the third quarter.

The Fed says farm real estate loans made up the largest share of farm lending as national farmland values increased. Land prices grew more than 25 percent above last year’s levels with most states in the Corn Belt and Northern Plains reaching record high gains.

The fed says strong ag profits limited overall ag loan demand, however. Equipment and livestock loans fell below levels of a year ago.

The Fed’s Kansas City 10th District Bank serves seven states: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico and western Missouri.

Outside markets fuel grain and oilseed gains

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying, along with spillover from the outside markets. The dollar was lower while the Dow and crude oil are up sharply after the European Union reached a debt deal. Past that – there was no real fresh news and while export shipments were good, weekly sales were lower than expected. Soybean meal and oil were higher as well, following the other commodities and shrugging off lower than expected export sales.

Corn was higher on technical and fund buying, in addition to spillover from the outside markets. However, there wasn’t much independent news for corn and commercial buying interest remains very light. Weekly export sales were below estimates and shipments were less than what’s needed weekly to meet USDA projections for the marketing year. Ethanol futures were higher. Morgan Stanley, via Dow Jones Newswires, projects 2011/12 Chinese corn exports by China at 4 million tons, up dramatically on the year due to increased feed demand. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 55% of Argentina’s corn crop is harvested, around 12% less than this time last year due to dry weather. The International Grains Council sees the 2011/12 global corn crop at 855 million tons, 3.5% above a year ago, with a record 63.8 million tons in Europe and substantial increases in South America and China.

The wheat complex was higher on technical and fund buying, along with spillover from the outside markets, especially the dollar. That said – there was no real fresh news for the complex and the overall fundamentals remain bearish. Weekly export sales were at the low end of estimates and shipments were below what’s needed to meet expectations. National Australia Bank estimates 2011/12 wheat production at 25.05 million tons, up from their last guess, but under ABARE’s most recent projection of 26.2 million tons. Ukraine reports 92% of their grain crop is harvested with the running total at 48.9 million tons.

Challenges to ag ahead

The challenges and realities of food choices is the focus of the 2011 Food Summit that kicked off in Chicago Tuesday.  The goal of the summit is to take an in-depth look at the key issues surrounding consumer food choices.  Dr. Jason Clay, Senior Vice-Preside of Market Transformations with the World Wildlife Fund kicked off the summit and told attendees that the challenge going forward is where and how we produce food.  Clay says if we don’t get those answers to those two questions right, we can turn out the lights and go home.  Because there won’t be anything left to talk about. 

Clay says demand is changing and in the next 40 years we have to produce as much food as we have in the last 8,000 years.  Here are some statistics Clay shares:

  •  We’ll have at least 2-3 billion more people by 2050. 
  • Their income will be at least 2.9X per capita
  • On average consumption will most likely double.
  • Consumption of animal protein is going to increase – primarily in developing countries.
  • 70 percent of people in 2050 will live in cities.

Clay says that is more people than are alive today.  The Center for Food Integrity’s Food Summit concluded on Wednesday.

Food price inflation could top five percent

Grocery store prices could top last year by as much as five percent, according to Ricky Volpe, a food price economist at the USDA.

“We are seeing a sharp increase in food prices,” said Volpe, in an interview provided by the USDA.

Until recently, Volpe projected a 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent jump. Specifically, Volpe says the late fruit harvest has resulted in expectations for fresh fruit prices to rise three to four-percent.

“This month, due to the late harvesting of a lot of fruit crops in California and in Florida, we’ve revised our forecast for the fresh fruit index upwards, and that was sort of a tipping point,” said Volpe. Additionally, beef prices could average as much as nine percent higher, and pork could be up 7.5 percent.

Volpe expects a break in 2012. Prices will continue to increase, but not at the same rate as this year.

“Right now we’re looking forward to a decrease in price inflation, for prices to start moving more how they have in the last twenty years, in a more historically normal rate,” said Volpe. “The all-food index is expected to increase 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent over 2011 levels, and food-at-home 3 percent to 4 percent.”

Volpe cautions that over the next 14 months, weather and economic factors could change that forecast quite a bit.

Limited numbers of cattle trade at lower prices

USDA Mandatory reported a light cattle trade in Kansas on light to moderate demand on Thursday. Live sales were 1.00 lower at 120.00. There were also a few live sales in Iowa at 121.00. Trading was inactive in all other areas. Cattle bulls were hoping the higher futures would prompt better packer bids. But it didn’t happen in part because of the board’s inability to take advantage of bullish outside markets. While the board’s reversal did trigger some feedlot selling, most feedlot managers and cattle buyers remained at a standoff. Asking prices are around 122.00 to 123.00 live and 194.00 dressed. The kill totaled 130,000 head, 6,000 more than last week, but even with a year ago.

Boxed beef values were firm on light to moderate demand and offerings. Choice boxed beef was .51 higher at 187.96, and select was down .28 at 169.82.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled 30 points higher to 30 lower. The market was aggressive in the early rounds on a rally in the outside markets due to the European debt deal. But the market was unable to hold on to those gains due to signs of slowing demand from meat packers. October settled .30 lower at 120.75, and December was down .52 at 119.90.

Feeder cattle settled .07 to 55 lower with only October in the black. The feeder cattle market was sluggish and ended lower on the lack of support from the live pit and higher corn futures prices. October was up .20 at 139.92, and November was .12 lower at 141.57.

[Read more...]

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: October 27, 2011

Dec. corn closed at $6.51 and 1/2, up 14 and 1/4 cents
Nov. soybeans closed at $12.35, up 24 and 1/2 cents
Dec. soybean meal closed at $323.50, up $6.50
Dec. soybean oil closed at 52.11, up 122 points
Dec. wheat closed at $6.44, up 24 and 1/2 cents
Oct. live cattle closed at $120.75, down 30 cents
Dec. lean hogs closed at $86.65, down 37 cents
Dec. crude oil closed at $93.96, up $3.76
Dec. cotton closed at 104.32, up 400 points
Nov. Class III milk closed at $18.09, up 21 cents
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,208.55, up 339.51 points

Growing the sheep industry in Ohio

The American Sheep Industry (ASI) brought their “Let’s Grow with twoPlus” initiative to Ohio on Tuesday, October 25. ASI Executive Director Peter Orwick tells Brownfield the time is right for the industry to grow.

“There’s two ways to do it,” said Orwick. “One, going to the folks that are in the business today and asking them to do more so we can keep these accounts supplied year-around, secondly is attracting folks that want to do something in agriculture and let them consider sheep as a fit.”

Audio: Peter Orwick, Executive Director, ASI (5:40 MP3)

Rocky Black, Deputy Director of the Ohio Department of Agriculture (ODA) says the initiative is definitely something the state can support and the Black tells Brownfield there are a couple of ways the state can help build sheep numbers.

“One is if producers are running into regulations at the state level we’re more than willing to step in and see if we can get some of those out of the way,” Black said. “Secondly, we have a program at ODA, it’s primarily a loan program, but it’s a low interest loan that we can work out with a producer or group of producers that would give them a chance at some significant money to build the market.”

Audio: Rocky Black, Deputy Director, ODA (1:50 MP3)

The Let’s Grow with twoPlus initiative has three goals, encourage producers to increase the size of their flock by 2 ewes per operation or 2 ewes per 100, increase average birthrate per ewe to two lambs per year and third, increase the harvest lamb crop by 2 percent from 108 to 110 percent.

Roger High, Executive Director of the Ohio Sheep Improvement Association (OSIA) says the state is excited about the American Sheep Industry’s initiative. Now he says, the work begins identifying those established producers who want to grow, as well as helping those individuals wanting to get in the sheep business.

“The other thing we’re looking at right now is taking some of those people who have been in the industry a few years and putting some young people with them in some type of apprenticeship program,” High said. “We’ve thrown the net out wide open to try and capture all of the ways we can potentially expand the industry here in Ohio, we’re looking at every possibility.”

Audio: Roger High, Executive Director, Ohio Sheep Improvement Assn. (5:40 MP3)

Iowa NRCS issues timely reminders

Iowa NRCS state conservationist Richard Sims notes a lot tiling work going on in Iowa fields this fall.

“We have had a fantastic fall—and it’s just unbelievable the amount of tiling machines that are out there,” Sims says.

But as producers make those improvements to their operations, Sims says they need to be cognizant of federal wetland provisions. He says any activity that alters natural wetlands could cause a loss of eligibility for USDA programs.

“It’s the pothole areas—it’s the area where you have a draw or swale that has not had tile in there before,” Sims says, “or you may have an area that has partially been tiled and there are still some remnants of a wetland in there—and those areas should be taken into consideration also.”

Sims says producers should check with their local USDA Service Center for a wetland determination before working in wet portions of their farms.

And Sims says there’s another farming practice that concerns him—the early fall application of anhydrous ammonia. “Anytime you put anhydrous in the ground when the soil temperature at four inches is above 50 degrees, you’re taking a huge risk of having that nitrogen leaving the farm and not being there for the crops next year,” he says.

Historically– according to Iowa State University Extension—soil temperatures at a 4-inch depth cool below 50 degrees in the northern third of Iowa during the first week of November. In central and southern Iowa, soil temperatures cool below 50 degrees during the second week and third weeks of November.

AUDIO: Richard Sims (3:47 MP3)

Link to Iowa NRCS news release