Friday 27th January 2012

This week’s cattle offering is smaller than last week

Country activity in the cattle was limited to the distribution of the new show lists. The ready numbers appear to be generally smaller than last week. Given the combination of last week’s larger slaughter and smaller trade volume, the assumption can be made that packers are starting out closer to the knife than they were last Monday, yet the development of buying interest will be dependent upon chain speed plans going forward. A few packages in the South have traded at 119.00 live and this business is probably related to expiring October and or basis consideration. Early asking prices are around 123.00 to 124.00 live, and 195.00 dressed. Monday’s cattle slaughter at 125,000 head is 1,000 less than last week and last year.

Boxed beef values were generally steady on light demand and offerings. Choice boxed beef was up .13 at 188.23, and select was .05 lower at 169.08.

Live cattle contracts settled 32 to 115 points lower mainly on technical selling and a lack of support from fundamentals, primarily the outlook for beef demand as not being clear for the near term. Negative packer margins continue to weigh on the market. Cattle futures ended off of the day’s lows on news that Japan has officially raised the threshold of beef coming into the country to 30 months and younger and that could help to support the market long term, although it is expected to be several months before the decision takes effect. October expired at 119.80 down 1.15, December was .45 lower at 118.60, and February was down .57 at 121.37.

Feeder cattle ended the session 50 to 110 points in the red on the lack of support from the live pit. November settled 1.05 lower at 140.05, and January was down .95 at 144.65.

[Read more...]

Missouri, Nebraska counties eligible for aid

USDA has declared 11 Kansas counties primary natural disaster areas making a handful of Missouri and Nebraska counties also eligible for aid.

Missouri counties eligible for aid due to ongoing drought since April 1 are Bates, Cass, and Jackson while the Nebraska county eligible due to extreme weather conditions from August 8 to 10 is Dundy County.

For more information, contact your local FSA office.

An update on Fontanelle’s Aqua View project

Interest in Fontanelle Hybrids’ Aqua View project continues to grow.  Nick Lammers heads up the effort for Fontanelle.  He says Aqua View is the company’s commitment to continually provide growers in the irrigated area of Fontanelle’s footprint with ways to maximize the value of their seeds and traits, and at the same time, utilize limited water resources.  Brownfield’s Ken Anderson visited with Lammers about where the project has been and where it’s going.

AUDIO: Nick Lammers (5:19 MP3)

Monday midday cash livestock prices

The main item of business in cattle country on Monday is the distribution of the new show lists. The market once again seems staged for a conflict between ready fed supplies and relatively lackluster demand. DTN is calling last week’s kill somewhat of a shocker, such ambitious plans clearly didn’t seem to help the packer cause, making feedlots even more current on one hand while further stuffing wholesale channels on the other. Early guess are cattle will be priced around 123.00 to 124.00 live and 195.00 plus dressed.

Choice boxed beef is .55 higher at 188.65, and the select is down .33 at 168.80.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Ft. Pierre Livestock Auction in South Dakota totaled 9856 head. Compared to a week ago feeder steers and heifers trended steady to 4.00 higher. There was a very good demand for many long strings and many packages of feeder cattle and several long strings of replacement heifers. Feeder steers medium and large 1 averaging 567 pounds traded at 164.11 per hundredweight, 526 pound heifers brought an average of 153.30.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade opened .38 lower, the West is down .34 with both at 87.36 on a carcass basis, and the East is down 1.28 at 86.15. The Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady from 83.00 to 86.00. Hogs at the terminals are .50 higher to 2.00 lower from 57.50 to 63.00.

Cash hog prices typically move lower from October to November. Over the last decade, November’s Iowa dressed average has been below October 80% of the time. The average month-to-month decline has been $5.16.

Soybean inspections top estimates

USDA reports it was a mixed week for grain and oilseed export inspections. Soybean inspections for the week ending October 27 were above pre-report expectations, while wheat was towards the high end of estimates, and corn fell below all projections.

Wheat came out at 20.820 million bushels, up 3.288 million bushels from the week ending October 20 and 3.079 million higher than the week ending October 28, 2010. At this point in the 2011/12 marketing year, wheat inspections are 461.983 million bushels, compared to 472.505 million in 2010/11.

Corn was reported at 27.726 million bushels, down 1.957 million from the previous week and 3.033 million lower than a year ago. For the marketing year to date, corn inspections are 222.422 million bushels, compared to 290.206 million this time last year.

Soybeans were pegged at 48.518 million bushels, an increase of 4.573 million from the week before but a decrease of 24.839 million bushels from a year ago. So far this marketing year, soybean inspections are 207.010 million bushels, compared to 330.451 million this time last year.

Sorghum inspections totaled 1.054 million bushels, 1.572 million bushels less than the prior week but 476,000 more than last year. 2011/12 sorghum inspections are 17.601 million bushels, compared to 21.541 million in 2010/11.

Corn basis has been historically tight

The corn basis—the price difference between Chicago and the local cash price—has been historically tight across much of the Midwest.

University of Illinois ag economist Darrel Good says harvest-time spot cash bids in south central Illinois are usually at least 20 cents under Chicago—but last week they were running about the same.  In other words, zero basis.

“That would be the strongest basis—for this time of year—that we’ve ever experienced,” says Good.

The president and CEO of Omaha-based ethanol producer Green Plains Renewable Energy, Todd Becker, agrees with that assessment.

“Go up to even northwest Iowa—and typically this time of year, you could be paying 25 to 40 under for corn across the dump,” Becker says. “To buy any real quantities of corn from commercials—if you’re an ethanol company—it’s taking at least five under to five over.  So we’re at 25 to 40 cents higher than historically on corn.”

And Becker says that, in Indiana and parts of Ohio—where harvest has been pushed back by rain, the corn basis has been running as high as 40 to 60 cents over.  Normally, it would be 10 under.

Good says that when basis is tight at harvest, it usually means farmers should just sell their corn right out of the field.

“It’s saying that corn demand is pretty strong right now—that there is a shortage of spot market supplies,” says Good, “and all the numbers we look at right now seem to me to be very friendly from the demand side.”

Market analysts say one reason for the slower movement of corn to market is the tremendous amount of on-farm storage that has been constructed over the past few years.

September: A cool month in Illinois

The statewide average temperature in Illinois was 63.2 degrees, 3 degrees below average, and the 13thcoolest September on record for the state.  The coolest September was in 1918 with 59.3 degrees, according to the Illinois State Water Survey.

The coldest spot for the month was Paw Paw with 32 degrees on Sepember 15.  Also on that day, the temperature at Stockton and Marengo dipped down to 34 degrees. Twenty-two weather stations either set or broke daily records for low temperatures.

Although September was a cool month on average, it began with a burst of heat on Labor Day weekend.  Highs reached the upper 90s and 100s.  The highest temperature was recorded at Quincy with 104 degrees on September 1.  Jacksonville reached 103 degrees on September 2.

In all, at least 65 weather stations in Illinois either tied or broke daily records for high temperatures in early September.

Precipitation was normal for the month.  The average precipitation in September was 3.53 inches, 0.34 inches above average.  Rainfall was stubbornly sparse in the areas hardest hit by drought where only 1 to 2 inches were common. Amounts in far southern and northern Illinois were much wetter at 4 to 8 inches.

Weed scientist: Charles Darwin predicted this

In a Bayer CropScience test plot in the middle of Iowa, Mike Owen is surrounded by healthy looking weeds that have escaped herbicide treatments during the growing season. The Iowa State University weed scientist seems surprised, not by the weeds, but that there are growers who didn’t expect the weeds to be there. “Resistance issues have been around for a long time,” Owen told Brownfield. “What we’re talking about is a natural function, one that Charles Darwin predicted over 100 years ago.” What’s happening, and it’s already well established in mid-south growing areas, is selection pressure caused by management decisions imposed on the weeds by failing to rotate herbicide chemistry, said Owen. “[Growers] end up with problems,” he said.

AUDIO: Mike Owen (3 min. MP3)

Making it work in a small town

Debbie Turner of Orange County, Indiana has been affiliated with the Indiana Cooperative Development Center since they started to develop the Lost River Market and Deli in Paoli.  Turner said the concept for the grocery came because the community was underserved.   She says the area had a Wal-Mart and a Save-A-Lot grocery and that was it.  Board members would ask members of the community if and how often they would go away for a major grocery trip and most said they make the trip to Bloomington or Louisville at least once a month.

Turner tells Brownfield one of their goals was to figure out a way to keep those dollars local.  She says they now do business with well over a hundred local and region vendors.  Another key to Lost River’s success is their deli which provides the community with “grab and go” sandwiches since there aren’t a lot of restaurants, either.  Turner says they even have a baker on-site.

While the Lost River Market and Deli is always looking for more customers, they are doing very well serving the community of Paoli.  Because of Turners involvement with the market and her dedication, she was honored for her Community Service at the Indiana Cooperative Development Center’s Coop Summit last week. 

You can learn more about the Lost River Market & Deli

HEL and WC provision reminder

Indiana Executive Director of USDA’s Farm Service Agency Julia Wickard reminds landowners in order to receive payments from USDA; compliance with Highly Erodible Land and Wetland Conservation provisions is required.  Wickard says if farmers are planning on installing new tile or grading wet spots in a field they should contact their local FSA County office before starting any work.  She says work done in areas eligible for HEL and WC need to be reviewed to ensure the modifications will not jeopardize a farmer’s eligibility for benefits.

For more information, producers can contact their local FSA County office or go online to www.fsa.usda.gov.