Market News

Outside markets pressure soybeans

Soybeans were lower on profit taking, commercial selling, and spillover from the outside markets. The dollar was higher while the Dow, gold and, crude oil were lower. In any event, there was no fresh news and no confirmation of recent market talk about new purchases by China. USDA reports 95% of soybeans are at the leaf dropping stage, compared to 98% last year and 96% average, with 69% harvested, compared to 81% last year and 61% average. Informa Economics’ increased 2012 crop planting estimate from last week wasn’t a factor Friday, but did play a role Monday. Soybean meal and oil were lower on spillover from beans and the supply implications of increased planted area. Mexico’s Ag Minister, via Dow Jones Newswires, expects increased soybean imports due to domestic production shortfalls. USDA’s weekly export inspections report, usually out Monday, will be delayed until 10 AM Central Tuesday due to technical issues; soybeans are pegged at 35 million to 40 million bushels, compared to 23.387 million last week.

Corn was narrowly mixed in consolidation trade. There was no fresh news to start out the week and while farmer selling has been slow, corn’s had trouble generating a lot of buying interest. Last week’s planted acreage projections from Informa provided modest support by midday Monday but really weren’t much of a factor. According to USDA, 94% of corn is mature, compared to 100% last year and 93% average with 47% harvested, compared to 66% last year and 41% on average, and 53% of the crop in good to excellent condition, unchanged on the week. Ethanol futures were mixed. Mexico’s Ag Minister, via Dow Jones Newswires, says its “probable” Mexico will have to increase corn imports to meet demand following weather issues in some key growing areas. USDA’s weekly export inspections report for the week ending October 13 is expected to show corn at 30 million to 38 million bushels, compared to 31.826 million for the week ending October 6.

The wheat complex was mostly higher. Chicago was narrowly mixed, following corn and the other U.S. wheat pits. Kansas City was up on concerns over rainfall totals across key hard red winter growing areas in the Southern Plains and Minneapolis was higher on the relatively tight supply of and good demand for hard red spring. USDA states 73% of winter wheat is planted, compared to 80% last year and 77% average with 44% emerged, compared to 50% last year and 51% average. European wheat was flat. Iraq bought 350,000 tons of wheat (150,000 tons each from Canada and Russia, along with 50,000 tons from Australia). Canada’s government will introduce a bill Tuesday to end the Canadian Wheat Board’s marketing monopoly on western Canadian wheat and barley. The CWB, via Dow Jones Newswires, adds 99% of western Canada’s grain and oilseed crops have been harvested. Kazakhstan’s Ag Ministry reports 98% of the expected acreage has been harvested with the running total at 27.6 million tons, above Astana’s most recent projection of 25 million tons. USDA’s weekly wheat export inspections are estimated at 16 million to 21 million bushels, compared to 12.581 million a week ago.

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