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The implications of climate change

What are the implications of climate change for farmers in the western Corn Belt?

University of Nebraska professor of climate modeling Dr. Robert Oglesby says models show the Great Plains will be warming by several degrees over the rest of this century—with precipitation staying about the same. 

But Oglesby says a bigger concern for the Great Plains region is predictions for warmer and drier conditions in the West—especially the Rocky Mountains—which could result in much reduced stream flows in the summer months.

“Just the warming alone, if that means more rain and less snow (in the Rockies) in the winter—or another way to look at it, if the mean rain-snow line increases in altitude—you don’t want rain there in the winter, because that just flushes out the rivers out to the Gulf of Mexico, well before it can be used,” says Oglesby.

“If I’m living here in eastern Nebraska, I’m probably more worried about what’s going to happen in the Rockies than I am about the actual climate change that’s going to occur right where I am.”

AUDIO: Robert Oglesby (6:30 MP3)

For Iowa farmers, the challenge could be too much rain at the wrong time. 

“If we look at the changes that have been occurring, and if we project those into the future, we’re likely to see more precipitation in the spring and early summer—we’ve seen a shift in seasonality toward more precipitation the first half of the year,” says Gene Takle, director of the climate science program at Iowa State University. “So that’s going to continue to be a challenge—and getting the crop in is going to be a continued challenge.”

The other big concern, Takle says, will be increases in nighttime temperatures, “which some suggest is going to be a limiting factor in terms of the grain filling, particularly during August.”

AUDIO: Gene Takle (5:17 MP3)

Oglesby and Takle were presenters at a recent climate and water symposium in Lincoln.

  • #1 Climate change has been going on in Iowa since the times when it was covered by a glacier. #2 Then you add to that the Y2K people (remember that baloney?) They had to move on to the next money maker to promote. Mix a little truth with an agenda and wah la; global warming it’s never happened before….go back and read #1 again and again and again…

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