Friday 27th January 2012

U.S. drops tariffs on EU luxury foods

In what may signal an end to one of the longest trade disputes we have, the U.S. lifted import duties on European luxury foods on Friday.

The dispute dates back to the 1980’s when the Europeans refused to allow hormone-treated beef from the U.S. and Canada into their market. The U.S. argued there was no scientific reason for the ban and the WTO approved sanctions.

The two trading partners had agreed in 2009 that the U.S. would gradually lift sanctions on things like truffles, chocolates and cheese while the E.U. would admit 45,000 tons of U.S. hormone-free beef duty-free.

The phase-in was supposed to be completed by this August but a spokesperson for the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office says U.S. beef exports to the EU have doubled since the plan was put into play so they decided to speed it up. They hope the E.U. will reciprocate and speed up implementation on their part of the deal as well.

Another good week for dairy

Dairy markets continued to gain on Friday. At the close of trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, cash cheese barrels increased 2.75 cents to $1.8175 and blocks added 2.25 cents to $1.81. Again, unfilled bids set the market. Class III futures added a few pennies.

For the week, cash cheese barrels gained 10.75 cents, blocks added 10.25 cents and butter increased 11 cents per pound. Class III futures for June increased 47 cents per cwt, July added 16 cents, August up 25 cents, September 21 cents higher and November added 14 cents.

Traditionally cheese plants run at near-capacity over the Memorial Day weekend as more milk becomes available thanks to schools closing-down and the seasonal production flush. While cheese plants will be busy, they will not be as “pushed” as normal, the cool, wet spring has delayed the production peak in the Midwest and Northeast and drought is becoming a factor in the Southeastern United States. Cheese buyers are becoming a bit hesitant given the current prices…some are backing-off thinking prices will come down soon.

The April Consumer Price Index for food was 3.2 percent higher than April of 2010. The dairy products index was up 6.3 percent from a year ago. Dairy Market News reports compared to April of 2010, the index for cheese was up 4.6 percent, whole milk was up 11.9 percent and butter up 22.9 percent.

Locking in a corn profit

Most Midwest farmers use crop insurance to manage risk, but it doesn’t cover everything.  Ag economists at the University of Illinois decided to see what it would take to hedge out the rest of the crop using corn futures at the CME in Chicago.

The goal was to gross at least 850 dollars per corn acre on a central Illinois farm. The FarmDoc team found that a corn farm covered by an 85 percent revenue protection crop insurance policy can nearly eliminate the risk of not making at least 850 dollars an acre by hedging just 10 percent of the expected yield.

University of Illinois Extension Farm Management Specialist Gary Schnitkey says, “If we’re at that level, we can minimize risk by hedging 10% of production.”

Schnitkey says there’s another important part of this.,“With that crop insurance policy, you can minimize that risk by about 10% of production,” he says, “But, if you go up to 70%, you’re not also increasing your risk either. So, you have a very wide range of very low risk with crop insurance and marketing.”

That means a grower could hedge up to 70 percent of the expected yield and not really risk making less than 850 an acre.

The FarmDOC team used a central Illinois corn farm with an average yield of 184 bushels to the acre and a cash corn price of $6 to the bushel to make the risk factor calculations.

FarmDoc report

Todd Gleason contributed to this report

Crop Insurance decisions adding to stress levels

For those farmers already faced with delayed planting, comes the added stress of deciding the best option if they have Crop Insurance.

Jim Rink with Indiana Farm Bureau Insurance tells Brownfield the biggest question currently deals with preventive planting.

“They’ve got to be thinking that the prevented planting acres must total at least 20 acres or 20 percent of the insurable acres,” said Rink. “Would they be better off to plant late and receive the reduced coverage, would they be better off to stay with their current crop, whether corn or soybeans, should they be looking at shorter season corn seed, just so many questions this spring.”

And Jim Rinks says to help relieve some of the stress, don’t hesitate talking with your Crop Insurance agent to make sure you understand your coverage and available options.

Audio: Jim Rink, Indiana Farm Bureau Insurance (5:10 MP3)

Corn adds weather premium ahead of Memorial Day weekend

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and pre-weekend position squaring with markets closed Monday for Memorial Day. There was no real fresh news and the trade expects at least some increase in planted area due to corn planting delays. Losses were limited by a firm close for crude oil, the higher move in corn and the tight nearby supply. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was weak on spillover from beans and profit taking. Ontario’s Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs reports 10% to 12% of soybeans have been planted, behind average due to wet conditions in many areas. China Grain Reserves Corp states Beijing intends to sell 2.12 million tons of soybeans from state reserves to five domestic crushers. China National Grain and Oil Information Center lowered its 2010/11 soybean import estimate to 53 million tons, down 1 million from their last guess with 2011/12 imports pegged at 57 million tons. Soybean oil imports for the current marketing year are seen at 1.6 million tons with meal at 300,000 tons, while imports for the next marketing year are pegged at 1.8 million and 200,000 tons, respectively.

Corn was higher on technical and commercial buying. The trade continues to react to the slow planting pace and expectations for at least some decrease in acreage. There’s a drier pattern in the forecast for some areas in the coming week but the trade has taking a wait and see attitude recently. Still, even with continued crop issues, traders are concerned about demand around current price levels. Ethanol futures were higher. According to the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, 70% to 75% on corn has been planted but out of the total, only 20% is planted in heavy soils and other drier areas.

The wheat complex was mixed ahead of the long holiday weekend. Minneapolis continues to watch the weather on expectations for smaller planted area due to widespread planting delays in the Northern Plains. Kansas City and Chicago were pretty much just consolidating ahead of the weekend but do have weather issues of their own. European wheat was lower on rainfall in some dry areas of France and Germany along with profit taking. Ukraine’s Weather Center expects the 2011 grain harvest to be around 43 million to 44 million tons and Ukrainian traders, via Dow Jones Newswires, report contacts have been signed on new crop wheat export with “several” cargoes selling at or near $325 per ton. Those traders add Ukraine may be able to fill Pakistan’s role in exporting lower quality wheat to Asia and Africa.

A quiet day in pre-holiday livestock markets

Mandatory did report a light test of firming fed business on Thursday with some Kansas cattle marked as high as 107.00, 3.00 higher than Thursday and only 1.00 less than the previous week. At the same time USDA confirmed a few heifers in Nebraska selling as high as 108.00, 2.00 higher than Tuesday and only 1.00 less than the previous week’s weighted average. While it is tough to generalize on such a small sample, greater spending may be reflective of short bought packers and attractive processing margins. The weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 672,000 head, 18,000 more than last week, but 4,000 less than last year.

Boxed beef cutout values ended the week lower on choice and generally steady on select, with light to moderate demand and offerings. Choice boxed beef was down 1.29 at 177.15, and select was .22 lower at 172.61.

Cattle futures settled mostly higher on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Friday in extremely light trade ahead of the long weekend. The few traders that were left to shut off the lights were more focused on pre weekend positioning, than any longer term market direction focus.  Feeder cattle contracts were mostly untraded on Friday. June live cattle settled .07 higher at 104.10. August was up .47 at 105.05. Feeder cattle for August were down .30 at 122.72, and September was up .10 at 124.25.

Feeder cattle receipts at Missouri auctions this week totaled 16,353 head. Compared to last week, steers sold 8.00 to 12.00 lower, heifers weighing less than 650 pounds were 6.00 to 10.00 lower, heavier weight heifers were steady to 4.00 lower. Markets continue to slip away from record prices seen earlier this year. Long term outlooks continue to point towards tight supplies of cattle but currently feedlots are full as many producers took advantage of record prices a few months ago. Feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing 622 lbs traded at 131.69 per hundredweight. 635 pound heifers brought 121.24.

[Read more...]

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 27, 2011

July corn closed at $7.58 and 1/2, up 13 cents
July soybeans closed at $13.79 and 3/4, down 5 cents
July soybean meal closed at $355.60, down $4.70
July soybean oil closed at 58.61, down 9 points
July wheat closed at $8.19 and 3/4, up 5 and 1/4 cents
June live cattle closed at $104.10, up 7 cents
June lean hogs closed at $88.92, up $1.12
July crude oil closed at $100.59, up 36 cents
July cotton closed at 152.67, up 164 points
June Class III milk closed at $18.48, up 7 cents
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,441.58, up 38.82 points

China’s drought worsens

According to wire reports, China’s worst drought in a half-century is deepening.

China’s state media reports that more than three million acres of farmland have been affected in seven provinces that form China’s so-called “rice basket.”  The Chinese government has pledged to boost spending on irrigation and other water works by billions of dollars, but in the long term much of the country is facing chronic water shortages.

The newspaper China Business News reports that farmers in two central China provinces have been unable to plant summer crops or keep fish ponds stocked.  And with little rain in the forecast, the paper says many are abandoning their fields and heading to the cities to seek work.

Commerce Ministry figures show prices for pork and rice are already rising, partly due to the drought.

Milk – An Indy 500 tradition

Since 1956 Indiana dairy farm families have been a part of one of the greatest traditions in all of sports, the handing of the Bottle of Milk to the winning driver of the Indianapolis 500. And for Richard Thomas of Elkhart County having the honor during the Indy 500’s Centennial year is even more special.

“I’m looking forward representing Indiana dairy families and giving the drink of milk to the winner,” said Thomas.

Audio: Richard Thomas, Indiana dairy farmer (3:55 MP3)

Another Indiana dairy farmer, tagging along with Thomas this year is Dave Forgey from Cass County. Forgey who will present the bottle of milk to the winning driver next year, will deliver a bottle of milk to the winning driver’s owner and crew chief at this year’s race.

“This is a phenomenal tradition to bring an agricultural product to a part of the industry that is not connected to agriculture,” said Forgey. “And to bring it in a way, the most coveted trophy in the sports world being a drink of milk.”

Audio: Dave Forgey, Indiana Dairy Farmer (5:20 MP3)

Each Indy 500 driver will be asked prior to race day if they prefer whole milk, 2 percent of fat free milk, and then on race day Indiana dairy farmers, Richard Thomas and Dave Forgey will make sure their favorite will be ready and waiting for them in Victory Circle.

Iowa climatologist expects summer of extreme temps

As far as temperatures go, the 2011 growing season in the Midwest could be one of extremes.  So says Iowa State University extension climatologist Elwynn Taylor.

“We’ll anticipate that we will have the variability that we have been seeing,” Taylor says. “A colder-than-usual week or two, and a warmer-than-usual week or two–and, of course, as we get into summer that can be downright hot–and if it hits on the wrong weeks it can do crop damage. So we just have to anticipate we’ll have greater variability than usual–both on the cold side and the warm side, as weeks go by.”

Some weather watchers are talking about a hot and dry summer for the Midwest.  Taylor isn’t seeing that in his weather models, but says it’s always a possibility.

“Should it happen–as it has done about once in ten or twelve years historically–plants that started off under too wet of conditions just do not do well if things do switch to hot and dry going together. And so we do have to consider that as a real risk that could affect both the crops–and the market prices that go with crops,” he says.

Taylor says the La Nina event is beginning to weaken, with most predicting that it will have run its course over the next 30 to 40 days.  But he says some prominent weather forecasters believe the La Nina’s influence could stretch into the summer and even into the fall.

Brownfield’s John Perkins contributed to this story.

AUDIO: John Perkins interviewing Elwynn Taylor (5:30 MP3)