Friday 27th January 2012

Iowa ADT intern program in Afghanistan

U.S. Air Force Captain Peter Shinn, Forward Operating Base Wright, Afghanistan has our story:

Members of the Iowa National Guard’s 734th Agribusiness Development Team in Kunar Province Afghanistan are planning an upcoming field day with their agricultural interns, young Afghan ag professionals who are carrying the Iowa ADT’s message to rank-and-file farmers here. U.S. Army Maj. Dwayne Eden of Wesley, Iowa runs the ag internship program for the ADT.

“It is working out excellent. They know agriculture and the Afghan way, and they can speak with the local farmers.”

The ag interns, Abdul Wali and Said Obaidullah, both speak passable English as well, and have undergraduate degrees in agriculture from Nangarhar University in Jalalabad. But Obaidullah says working with the ADT has given him invaluable practical agricultural experience.

“I am very happy, sir, because I get more experience from the ADT team. I can able to learn more than.”

For Abdul Wali, working with the ADT means working for the future of his country.

“I like agriculture for to development of Afghanistan. This is main point: when the country have agriculture land, this country is very development.”

The ADT’s project manager for the Chowkay District is U.S. Army 1st Lt. Scott Shirk of Emmetsburg, Iowa. He says the ag internship program has no downside.

“It’s a win-win for both the ADT and the interns. And then also it’s a win for the Afghan farmers, you know, able to increase their knowledge from the training that we’re conducting.”

Another major upside of the ag internship program is how it has changed the opinion of the interns about Americans. Abdul Wali says that change has been dramatic.

“I say when I don’t work with the ADT team and American people, I think, ‘He’s very liar, not honest.’ When I come here, this is for my surprise, he’s a very honest man.”

The opinion of young Afghan men like Abdul Wali and Said Obaidullah about the U.S. is vitally important, says U.S. Air Force Chief Master Sgt. Don Kuehl of Jackson, Minnesota, the ADT’s project manager for the Sarkani District.

“The future of Afghanistan is actually in these young men’s hands right now. If this country is to succeed, it’s going to be because of young men like Said and Abdul.”

Prospective planting, quarterly stocks estimates out Thursday

Ahead of Thursday’s reports from USDA, analysts expect year to year increases in corn and wheat planting against at least a small cut for soybeans.

The average guess for 2011 corn acreage is 91.662 million acres, compared to 88.2 million for 2010 as producers try to meet demand expectations and help supplies recover from a 15-year low. The range of estimates runs from 90.400 million to 92.600 million acres.

Soybean acreage is seen at 76.969 million acres, compared to 77.4 million last year, losing acreage primarily to corn and cotton. Analysts’ estimates run from 75 million to 78.500 million acres.

All wheat planted area is projected at 57.302 million acres, compared to 53.6 million a year ago as producers try to reclaim previously lost acreage. For all wheat, expectations range from 56.500 million to 58.400 million acres.

By class, winter wheat is seen at 41.150 million acres, compared to 37.3 million in 2010, spring wheat is pegged at 13.710 million acres, almost unchanged from the 13.7 million planted last year, and durum is estimated at 2.552 million acres, down modestly from the 2.6 million a year ago.

Quarterly stocks estimates are also out Thursday.

The average estimate for the as of March 1 corn stocks is 6.701 billion bushels which would be down more than 3 billion from December 1, 2010 on stronger than anticipated demand.

Soybeans are placed at 1.295 billion bushels, roughly 1 billion less than the previous quarter but slightly behind average use because of a slowdown in the domestic crush and export demand.

Wheat stocks are expected to be around 1.399 billion bushels, more than 500 million below USDA’s last estimate thanks to an improvement in export demand.

Both reports are out Thursday, March 31 at 7:30 AM Central.

Corn leads soybeans and wheat lower

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling, along with spillover from corn and crude oil. Traders were pretty much just getting squared up ahead of Thursday’s prospective planting and quarterly stocks update. Past that – while Brazil should see more harvest delaying rain this week, there’s a drier pattern on tap for Argentina. Celeres reports 56% of Brazil’s crop is harvested, compared to 67% a year ago, while 58% has been sold, compared to 37% this time last year. Soybean meal and oil followed beans lower.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. There was no real fresh news for corn, so the trade was pretty much just starting to get ready for those USDA numbers. Also, China announced plans to sell more than a million tons of feed wheat on the domestic market and said there were no plans to reduce export tariffs. Additionally, there’s been no confirmation of rumored Chinese export interest. Ethanol futures were lower.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, in addition to spillover from corn. Wheat’s fundamentals remain very bearish, especially on the demand side. Losses were at least somewhat limited by weather concerns areas covered by the pits in Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis. European wheat was higher ahead of the USDA numbers Thursday.

Allendale sees big cut in quarterly corn stocks

Ahead of Thursday’s USDA quarterly stocks update, Allendale Inc. sees a big quarter to quarter cut in the domestic corn supply because of the strong overall demand.

Allendale has corn stocks as of March 1 at 6.691 billion pounds, compared to 10.040 billion on December 1 2010, for implied usage of 3.349 billion bushels, which would be the second largest ever.

Soybean stocks are seen at 1.366 billion bushels, compared to 2.270 billion at the end of the previous quarter and quite a bit behind the previous year’s usage for that period due to a slowdown in exports and the domestic crush.

Wheat stocks are pegged at 1.353 billion bushels, compared to 1.928 billion in the prior report, which would be the best third quarter usage since 1987/88.

The numbers are out 7:30 AM Central, Thursday, March 31.

Cattle show lists appear smaller than last week

Packers collected the new cattle show lists on Monday. That new offering is generally smaller than last week with only Kansas showing a few more steers and heifers. Initially the asking prices are sharply higher thanks to Friday’s bullish explosion in futures and recent cash momentum. Early asking prices are around 120.00 plus live and 195.00 dressed. Trade volume totals for last week were moderate at best, perhaps suggesting that well margined packers are fairly short bought. Monday’s cattle kill is estimated at 128,000 head, 2,000 more than last week, and 5,000 greater than a year ago.

Boxed beef cutout values were firm on light to moderate demand and offerings. Choice boxed beef was up .50 at 186.42, and select was up .26 at 185.38.

Live cattle contracts settled 65 to 120 points lower on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Monday on profit taking after Friday’s sharply higher prices. Pressure from outside markets also weighed on cattle futures. But the general tone of the market remains firm, and it is going to take a more significant jolt to the market to unnerve the recent market support according to DTN. April settled .65 lower at 117.95, and June was down .77 at 116.97.

Feeder cattle ended the session 12 to 40 points higher on softer corn prices. March settled .40 higher at 132.30, and April was up .05 at 134.90.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Oklahoma National Stockyards on Monday totaled 8200 head. At midsession feeder and stocker cattle were steady to 2.00 higher. Demand was good for all classes of cattle. Feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing 500 to 600 pounds traded from 153.25 to 164.00. 5 to 6 weight heifers brought 134.00 to 147.00 per hundredweight.

Lean hogs ended the session 20 higher to 45 points lower. The modest increase in hog numbers reflected in the quarterly hogs and pigs report pressured prices, but ideas exports will continue strong was supportive to futures. There was some profit taking after last week’s gains. April settled 12 points higher at 92.60 and, June was up 15 at 103.25.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade closed 1.04 higher at 85.47 on a carcass basis, the West was up 1.33 at 84.94, and the East closed .20 lower at 83.03. The Missouri direct base carcass meat price closed steady to 1.00 higher at 78.00.

Pork trading was slow to moderate with light to moderate demand and offerings. Pork carcass cutout was up .68 at 94.21.

Market activity in the hogs was slow with light demand. The hog slaughter was estimated at 407,000 head, 3,000 less than last week and down 22,000 from a year ago.

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: March 28, 2011

May corn closed at $6.71, down 18 and 1/2 cents
May soybeans closed at $13.48 and 1/2, down 9 and 3/4 cents
May soybean meal closed at $353.60, down $3.60
May soybean oil closed at 56.53, down 31 points
May wheat closed at $7.25 and 1/4, down 8 cents
April live cattle closed at $117.95, down 65 cents
April lean hogs closed at $92.60, up 12 cents
May crude oil closed at $103.98, down $1.42
May cotton closed at 197.49, down 700 points
April Class III milk closed at $17.25, up 25 cents
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,197.88, down 22.71 points

“Lameness Locater” developed for horses

A University of Missouri faculty start-up company, Equinosis,  is developing the “Lameness Locator” – a new system for detecting lameness in horses that is now in commercial use.   Kevin Keegan, professor of equine surgery at the College of Veterinary Medicine at MU, says their system  effectively assesses the problem of lameness using motion detection:    Lameness being the most common ailment among horses.

AUDIO: Kevin Keegan (3 min. MP3)

Expect some choppy trade

Cory Winstead, Risk Management Specialist at AgriVisor expects to see some choppy trading ahead the USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report on Thursday, March 31.

“Because nobody really wants to be on either side of it, not sure what’s going to happen,” said Winstead. “So you’ll see some choppy trade day-to-day.”

Winstead says the key number in the USDA report says will be corn acres.

“Are there going to be enough acres out there in corn to produce for our demand we’re seeing, that’s the big key right now,” Winstead said.

The USDA Prospective Plantings Report will be released this Thursday, March 31.

Chinese demand for U.S. ag products not expected to slow

The grain markets were abuzz last week over a large U.S. corn export sale of 1.25 million metric tons.  The buyer was not disclosed, but speculation is that it was China .

The Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) currently has a trade group traveling in China. One of the participants, ISA’s director of market development Grant Kimberley, says although China wants to be self sufficient in its food production, it’s unlikely that will be possible in the foreseeable future.

“You have 1.3 or 1.4 billion people—depending on who you talk to—and more of those people, every single year, are becoming more affluent,” says Kimberley.  “They’re eating more meat in their diet—so that just is going to continue to increase the demand for feed grains to feed their livestock industry.”

Kimberley points out that, just last week, the World Bank predicted that China will overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy in 2030. 

“It’s just something that you’re going to continue to see,” he says. “They have an eight percent growth rate of their economy most years—and that looks like that’s going to continue.  So you’re just going to continue to see a huge demand pull from this side of the world.”

An official of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences recently told the China Daily newspaper that limited arable land, scarce water resources and rapid urbanization have made it difficult to expand China’s grain harvest.

Link to trade mission blog by ISA director of communications Karen Simon

Continued growth in ‘pigs per litter’

One of the key numbers in last Friday’s quarterly hogs and pigs report was the “pigs per litter” number. 

That figure—at nine-point-eight pigs per litter—was a record for the December-February quarter.  It compares to nine-point-six last year. 

Ag economist Erica Rosa with the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Lakewood, Colorado says “pigs per litter” will continue to drive the overall hog marketing numbers.

“Producers still remain quite cautious.  We’re not building barns.  The financing side is still a little bit tight,” Rosa says.  “So, overall, when looking at the marketing hog numbers and future slaughter numbers, it’s the pigs per litter—these record numbers and that trend—that’s driving these numbers.  Most likely it is not an expansion—it’s the genetics.”

Rosa calls the continued increases in sow productivity “amazing.”