Friday 27th January 2012

Auburn assists with science-based research

Dr. Shelly McKee says Auburn University has been able to provide third-party research that backs up some of the changes now being seen in the poultry industry.  She says their research on salmonella and campylobacter that is peer-reviewed and published and that is helping the industry deal with and reduce food safety concerns based on science. McKee was on a panel of experts at an IPE educational session held Thursday.

AUDIO: Dr. Shelley McKee (6 min. MP3)

Doha Round getting down to the wire

A strong message coming out of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Friday; If the Doha Round of World Trade Talks is not concluded this year, it probably never will get done. Last November the U.K., Germany, Indonesia and Turkey commissioned a report on the future of Doha, former WTO director Peter Sutherland, now with Goldman Sachs and Columbia University economist Jagdish Bhagwati were tabbed to write it. The released a 20-page summary to the WEF on Friday. It states that government leaders need to do more than just repeat rhetoric and specifically mentions that in the end, “the U.S. and China need to push it over the line.”

According to the Wall Street Journal, the report outlines four specific reasons the round should be concluded; It would ensure against trade wars coming out of the recession; It would be an incentive for the E.U. and U.S. to lower farm subsidies; It would open agricultural markets in the EU and U.S. and open industrial markets in China, India and Brazil; It would legitimize the WTO method of resolving trade disputes among members.

The Doha round was launched in a spirit of global cooperation a couple of months after the 9/11 attacks. Since that time they have been bogged down mainly over the role of developing countries to the point of breaking down in 2008. The report notes that things have changed over the last decade and for the deal to work; emerging countries are going to have to make some concessions. In conclusion the authors contend just because you can’t create a perfect system you shouldn’t miss the chance to create and “unprecedentedly good” one.

U.S. dairy herd 1% larger

The January 1 Cattle Inventory Report from USDA on Friday shows 9.149 million dairy cows in the country up 1 percent from the 9.085 million head on January 1, 2010. There were 4.56 million head of replacement heifers as of the beginning of the year, 30,000 more than a year ago and the most since 1986. That works out to 49.8 replacements for every 100 cows in the milking string which is about the same ratio as a year ago.

Cash cheese continues to chase the nonfat dry milk market. Friday saw barrels up 2.25 cents to close at $1.705 while blocks gained 3.25 cents to close at $1.735. The prices were set by the sale of one load of barrels and an unfilled bid for blocks. Meanwhile Extra Grade nonfat dry milk held steady but Grade A gained 2.5 cents to close at $1.6575 per pound.

For the week, barrels gained 19.5 cents, blocks increased 21 cents. Grade A nonfat dry milk was up 13.5 cents while Extra Grade increased 11 cents per pound. Class III futures slipped a bit on Friday but the first-half 2011 contracts held good gains for the week. The February contract was up 50 cents on the week, March gained $1.19, April up 68 cents, May increased 25 cents while July lost 6 cents.

USDA decision on RR alfalfa well timed

USDA’s decision regarding Roundup Ready alfalfa is timely for growers of the genetically enhanced forage crop. That’s according to Mark McCaslin, president of Forage Genetics International, a co-developer of Roundup Ready Alfalfa. The USDA announcement deregulating Roundup Ready alfalfa is in time for those who want to plant it this spring, McCaslin tells Brownfield.

“The fact that they were able to turn this around quickly after the 30-day required waiting period does enable that [planting], so we’re very pleased with the timeliness of the decision,” McCaslin said, “and then secondly, their decision to deregulate without conditions, again, we think is good for alfalfa growers and good for us as a company.”

Critics of genetically enhanced alfalfa fear there could be contamination of non-GM varieties, including organically grown forages. McCaslin is confident that can be avoided.

“Our industry, I think, has sort of lived this whole coexistence issue for a number of years because we sell products to so many different markets,” said McCaslin, “and the industry has been proactive in designing stewardship programs to enable coexistence.”

He says the vast majority of Roundup Ready alfalfa is harvested for forage before flowering and that seed producers are concentrated in a relatively small geographic area of the Pacific Northwest.

The USDA Thursday issued an announcement Thursday that it’s granting non-regulated status for alfalfa that has been genetically engineered to be resistant to the herbicide commercially known as Roundup.

“After conducting a thorough and transparent examination of alfalfa through a multi-alternative environmental impact statement and several public comment opportunities, APHIS [the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service] has determined that Roundup Ready alfalfa is as safe as traditionally bred alfalfa,” U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said Thursday, in a news release from the USDA.

AUDIO: Mark McCaslin (9 min. MP3)

Food safety and animal welfare

The Vice President of Food Safety & Production with the US Poultry & Egg Association, Dr. Al Yancy, coordinated the educational sessions at this year’s International Poultry Expo. Those sessions – on sustainability, salmonella reduction, and other dustry topics – were a big hit with attendees and credited for an increase in this year’s Expo attendance.  He talked with Brownfield about some of those issues, and how other industry groups are taking the lead on animal welfare issues.

AUDIO: Dr. Al Yancy (5 min. MP3)

Wheat leads beans and corn lower

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and spillover from wheat. Also, it should be a dry weekend for most of Argentina, but temperatures aren’t expected to be extreme. In any event, demand continues to look strong with China picking up another 110,000 tons of new crop U.S. beans ahead of the open. Contracts moved to near two week highs prior to pulling back. Soybean meal and oil also had an up and down day, closing lower following beans.

Corn was lower on profit taking, technical selling and spillover from wheat. Outside of the sale of 151,638 tons of old crop corn to Japan, there was no real fresh news and demand rationing remains a factor. Also, with the increased amount of feed wheat on the export market, many traders expect corn to lose some feed market share. Losses in the deferreds were limited by ethanol demand projections and traders trying to ensure adequate U.S. acreage. Ethanol futures were lower.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and the higher dollar. There is some precipitation in the forecast for the Southern U.S. Plains over the next few days, there was no real fresh news for wheat either and contracts were a little overbought. Also, there are projections for increased Australian acreage in some of the eastern states hit hard by excessive rainfall. The civil unrest in Egypt, the world’s biggest importer of wheat, was an additional bearish feature. According to Russian news services via Dow Jones Newswires, Moscow will suspend its 5% grain import tariff until June 30, with Dow Jones adding Indonesia has suspended import duties until the end of the year for food related items, including wheat. Taiwan bought 52,000 tons of U.S. wheat. European wheat was mixed.

Lean hogs hit new contract highs

There were just a few clean up deals in the cattle on Friday. For the week, slaughter cattle traded 1.00 to 2.00 lower from 104.00 to 105.00 live. On a dressed basis in the North the market was 2.00 to 3.00 lower from 167.00 to 168.00. Packer demand was moderate as boxed beef prices held firm. Slaughter rates picked up this week and showed good improvement over a year ago. However, last year at this time much of the Midwest was battling ice and snow and transportation to market was difficult. The weekly slaughter was estimated at 650,000 head, 20,000 more than last week and 18,000 greater than last year.

Boxed beef cutout values were weak on light to moderate demand and offerings. Choice beef was down .25 at 172.85, and select was down .86 at 170.75.

Live cattle contracts settled 25 to 92 points higher on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Friday. Profit taking was noted early in the session but moderate support returned near midsession resulting in a higher close. The traders were anticipating the cattle inventory report to be released after the close of trade although smaller numbers were expected and factored into the market. February settled .55 higher at 107.50, and April was up .60 at 112.77.

Feeder cattle contracts settled 62 to 122 higher on spillover support from the live pit, lower corn values and expectations of a lower cattle herd size in the inventory report. March was up .62 at 126.22, and April was up .90 at 127.27.

 Feeder cattle receipts at Missouri auctions this week totaled 32,239 head. Compared to last week, feeder steers weighing less than 650 pounds were steady to 2.00 higher, over 650 pounds steady to 3.00 lower. Heifers weighing less than 700 pounds were steady to 2.00 higher, over 700 pounds steady to 2.00 lower. Demand was good for a moderate supply. Feeder steers medium and large 1; 1124 head averaging 575 pounds averaged 141.53 per hundredweight. 850 heifers weighing 572 brought 125.96 per hundredweight.

Lean hogs settled 25 to 180 points higher on positive export news, higher cash prices at midday and the continued improvement in carcass cutout value through the week. New contract highs were hit from February through the August contract. Traders are watching the June contract as it approaches the $1.00 a pound level.  February was 1.80 higher at 85.75, and April settled at 91.62. June was up .55 at 99.42.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade closed 1.09 higher at 79.29 on a carcass basis, the West was up 1.01 at 78.99, and the east closed 4.68 higher at 79.78. Missouri direct base carcass meat price was steady from 69.00 to 70.00.

Pork trading was slow, with light to moderate demand and mostly light offerings. Pork carcass cutout was up .88 at 88.57.

The weekly hog slaughter was estimated at 2,179,000 head including 88,000 for Saturday, 13,000 greater than last week and 38,000 more than last year. Cash appreciation in the hog market has been impressive this week, helped by both tighter numbers and expanding product demand, much of it tied to the hot South Korean appetite.

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: January 28, 2011

March corn closed at $6.44, down 4 and 3/4 cents
March soybeans closed at $13.98, down 1 and 1/2 cents
March soybean meal closed at $377.00, down 40 cents
March soybean oil closed at 57.27, down 14 points
March wheat closed at $8.25 and 3/4, down 20 and 1/2 cents
February live cattle closed at $107.50, up 55 cents
February lean hogs closed at $85.75, up $1.80
February crude oil closed at $89.34, up $3.70
March cotton closed at 164.75, down 464 points
February Class III milk closed at $16.43, down 5 cents
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 11,823.70, down 166.13 points

Sheep herd down 2%, goat inventory down 1%

According to the Ag Department, all sheep and lambs in the U.S. as of January 1 were 5.53 million head, down 2% from a year ago.

The breeding sheep inventory was reported at 41.2 million head, 2% less than this time last year.

Ewes one year and older were pegged at 3.26 million head, a 2% decrease.

Market lambs came out at 1.42 million head, down 1% on the year, with market lambs making up 94% of total marketings and sheep comprising the other 6%.

The 2010 lamb crop was reported at 3.6 million head, a 2% decline from 2009 with the lambing rate unchanged from a year ago at 108 lambs per 100 ewes.

USDA also released updated goat data.

The total goat herd came out at 3 million head with the breeding herd at 2.49 million head, does one year and older at 1.84 million and market goats and kids at 514,000 head, all down 1% from January 1, 2011.

Meat goats made up most of the total at 2.47 million head with milk goats at 360,000 and goats used for Angora production at 172,000 head.

The 2010 kid crop dropped 2% on the year to 1.91 million head.

January 1 U.S. cattle inventory lowest since 1958

USDA’s semi-annual cattle inventory update came out fairly close to expectations, showing multi-decade lows for the total herd and calf crop due to reduced hay acreage and drought in some of the major feeding areas.

All cattle and calves in the U.S. as of January 1 were reported at 92.6 million head, at the high end of estimates but still the smallest January 1 total since 1958.

The 2009 calf crop was pegged at 35.7 million head, also at the high end of estimates but the smallest since 1950. USDA projects the calf crop for the first half of 2010 at 25.9 million head, 1% less than the previous year.

All cows and heifers that have calved were reported at 40 million head, 1% below a year ago, with beef cows at 30.9 million head, down 2%, and milk cows at 9.1 million, up 1%.

All heifers weighing 500 pounds and up were placed at 19.5 million, a decrease of 1%, with beef replacement heifers at 5.2 million head, down 5%, milk replacement heifers at 4.6 million head, up 1%, and other heifers at 9.8 million head, also up 1%.

Steers weighing 500 pounds and up came out at 16.4 million head, 1% less than a year ago, bulls 500 pounds and up were pegged at 2.2 million head, a 2% decrease, and calves weighing less than 500 pounds were reported at 14.5 million head, a drop of 3%.

Slaughter cattle and calves on feed in all feedlots were placed at 14.0 million head, 3% above this time last year, but the combined calves less than 500 pounds and other steers and heifers more than 500 pounds outside of the feedlots were 3% below a year ago at 26.7 million head.

Darrell Mark discusses the implications of the numbers (8 Minutes, MP3)