According to a DTN report, with current Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas trailing in the polls in her re-election bid, congressional observers have begun a traditional ritual of speculating on who will replace Lincoln if she is defeated—and assuming that Democrats hold on to their majority in the Senate.

Democrats following Lincoln in seniority on the committee are, in order, Pat Leahy of Vermont, Tom Harkin of Iowa, Kent Conrad of North Dakota and Max Baucus of Montana.  However, each of them already chair other Senate committees and would not likely give up their current position to take over the agriculture panel.

The next in line — Debbie Stabenow of Michigan — is not currently a committee chairman. Tradition would dictate that she would be handed the chairman’s gavel, should Lincoln fall to challenger John Boozman in this Tuesday’s election.  Sources close to the panel says Stabenow is well-liked by her colleagues and earned their respect during the last round of farm bill negotiations by bridging the interests of states with commodity crops and those with specialty fruit and vegetables.

However, according to the website politico.com, another name is being floated about—that of Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson, a moderate Democrat. There is speculation that if Republicans are able to, as one pundit put it, “get within spitting distance” of taking over the Senate, they might try to convince Nelson to switch parties.   In that case, the Democratic leadership might use the Ag Committee chairmanship as bait to keep Nelson in the Democratic fold.

If Republicans manage to gain control of the Senate, Saxby Chambliss is seen as a shoo-in for the spot.  The Georgia Republican was chair of the panel from 2005 to 2007 and has been the ranking member since then.