Friday 27th January 2012

Feedlot cattle trade at a standstill

The feedlot cattle trade was at a standstill on Tuesday with just a few starter bids at 96.00 in parts of the South and Colorado. Asking prices are around 100.00 in the South and 156.00 to 157.00 in the North. The big question is whether beef cutout values can improve enough to justify better packer bids, and can futures prices show improvement. That could take a few days to sort out and delay trade until late in the week. Tuesday’s cattle kill was estimated at 129,000 head, 1,000 below last week, but 3,000 greater than last year at this time.

Boxed beef cutout values were steady to weak on light demand and light to moderate offerings. Choice boxed beef was up .03 at 157.62, and select was down .35 at 149.18.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled 27 points higher to 40 points lower on spreads. The live issues bounced higher and lower through the morning session as traders monitored outside markets before stepping back into the market. Trading was sluggish as traders waited for the cash market to develop. October settled .10 lower at 97.15, and December was unchanged at 99.30.

Feeder cattle settled 12 to 125 points higher on the sharp losses in the corn pit. Lower grain prices are supportive to futures as they can ultimately result in lower input costs for producers. Soon to expire September settled at 110.00 up 1.20 and October finished at 110.40 up 1.00.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Joplin, MO Regional Stockyards on Monday totaled 3764 head. Compared to last week, steer calves trended 3.00 to 5.00 lower, heifer calves 2.00 to 3.00 lower and yearlings steady to 3.00 lower. Feeder steers medium and large 1 and 1-2 weighing 500 to 600 pounds traded from 99.00 to 116.00, 7 to 8 weights from 102.25 to 113.25. 500 to 600 pound heifers brought 90.50 to 109.00 and 7 to 8 weights from 87.00 to 97.00 per hundredweight.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade closed 3.14 higher at 81.25 on a carcass basis, the West was up 2.78 at 80.97, but the East closed .87 lower at 78.51. The Missouri direct base carcass meat price closed steady to 1.00 lower from 74.00 to 75.00.Tuesday’s hog slaughter was estimated at 417,000 head, the same as last week, but 22,000 less than a year ago. The Hogs and Pigs report confirmation that pork supplies are going to stay tight for 2011 provides ample support to expectations for continued strength in the cash hog market over the foreseeable future according to DTN’s John Harington.

The pork carcass cutout value was down 2.78 and closed at 87.90. Pork trading was slow to moderate, with mostly light to moderate demand and light to moderate offerings.

Lean hog contracts settled 10 to 87 points lower on profit taking. Traders appeared to be unwilling to aggressively step back into the market despite sharp gains in hog prices in the Iowa/Minnesota and Western direct trade areas at midday.  October settled .57 lower at 78.57, and December was down .87 at 75.90.

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: September 28, 2010

December corn closed at $5.00, down 12 and 3/4 cents
November soybeans closed at $11.10, down 18 and 1/2 cents
October soybean meal closed at $303.50, down $7.90
October soybean oil closed at 44.56, down 2 points
December wheat closed at $6.84 and 3/4, down 21 and 3/4 cents
October live cattle closed at $97.15, down 10 cents
October lean hogs closed at $78.57, down 57 cents
November crude oil closed at $76.18, down 34 cents
December cotton closed at 105.24, up 131 points
October Class III milk closed at $16.49, down 6 cents
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 10,858.14, up 46.10 points

President signs price reporting bill into law

President Obama has signed into law the mandatory price reporting act—a measure designed to create added transparency in USDA’s mandatory price reporting program.

According to Warren Preston of the Ag Marketing Service, the new act has three main provisions, including the reauthorization of the existing mandatory livestock reporting program for five years.  It also “adds the provision or mandatory pork reporting and it requires the USDA to go through a negotiated rule-making process to promulgate the rule for the pork reporting,” Preston says, “and then it also requires USDA to set up an electronic reporting system for the current mandatory reporting program for dairy products.”

Preston adds that weekly reporting of export pork sales is now included in the new mandatory price reporting act.

“The core component here is to provide information to the marketplace so that everybody know what’s happening,” he says. “It gives transparency to the market.”

The new law has broad support from agricultural organizations, including both the American Farm Bureau and National Farmers Union (NFU). NFU president Roger Johnson says it should help ease the dairy crisis by providing for more certainty and transparency in the volatile marketplace.

Chinese poultry duties won’t affect exports

Officials of the U.S. poultry industry say China’s imposition of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties will not have any effect on current trade with that country, since they essentially have been in place since February.

Over the weekend, China’s Commerce Ministry finalized anti-dumping duties ranging from 50-point-three percent to 104-point-four percent on U.S. chicken products for five years.  That’s a slight increase from the initial duties in place since February.

A spokesman for the National Chicken Council, responding to a Dow Jones reporter, once again denied that the U.S. poultry industry engaged in dumping and denied receiving government subsidies, as the Chinese have claimed.  He points out China’s actions follows tariffs imposed by the U.S. on automotive tires made in China and U.S. congressional action against Chinese cooked poultry products.

The leaders of the Senate Agriculture Committee—chairman Blanche Lincoln and Ranking Member Saxby Chambliss both decried China’s action. Chambliss says it will, quote, “undoubtedly lead to increased tensions, rather than lessen them.”

Cuba trade vote

The House Foreign Affairs Committee is scheduled to vote this week on a bill that would ease restrictions on trade and travel to Cuba. Chris Garza, Trade Specialist with the American Farm Bureau Federation says it’s a good bill and that it’s time to end the Cuba embargo.

“This is one of those issues where the economics make sense, but the politics clouds common sense. Agricultural folks aren’t the only ones who support this. It’s being supported by human rights organizations, by Cuban dissidents, by former Cuban political prisoners,” said Garza. “It’s not just about the economics, but it is about improving our relations with Cuba to help create change within the country. We’ve had 50 years of an embargo that has not worked, that has not had an impact on Cuba or the Cuban government and so it’s time to try something new.”

The AFBF Trade Specialist says time is running out and if the bill doesn’t pass this year, it will be back to square one with the new Congress.

The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) is also urging House members to lift trade and travel restrictions to the island nation. In a letter sent to members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the NPPC asked members to support H.R. 4645 and to oppose any amendments to it.

According to an Iowa State University economist Demot Hayes, U.S. pork exports would increase by $28.2 million once travel and financing restrictions on Cuba were lifted.

Tuesday midday cash livestock markets

It looks to be a typically quiet day in the feedlot cattle trade with neither basis opportunities nor flat bids likely to generate early selling interest, like we saw last week. The higher futures market on Monday should work to support firmer asking prices of around 99.00 to 100.00 in the South, and 156.00 to 157.00 in the North.  Now the question is whether beef cutout values can improve enough to justify better packer bids. All that could take a few days to sort out.

Boxed beef cutout values were mixed in the morning report. Choice beef is up .22 at 157.81 and select is down .30 at 149.23.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Joplin, MO Regional Stockyards on Monday totaled 3764 head. Compared to last week, steer calves trended 3.00 to 5.000 lower, heifer calves 2.00 to 3.00 lower and yearlings steady to 3.00 lower. Feeder steers medium and large 1 and 1-2 weighing 500 to 600 pounds traded from 99.00 to 116.00, 7 to 8 weights from 102.25 to 113.25. 500 to 600 pound heifers brought 90.50 to 109.00 and 7 to 8 weights from 87.00 to 97.00 per hundredweight.

Direct traded hogs opened sharply higher west of the Mississippi. Iowa/Minnesota barrows and gilts are 3.59 higher at 81.70 on a carcass basis, the West is up 3.38 at 81.57, but the East is down .70 at 78.68. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady to 1.00 lower from 74.00 to 75.00.

 The Hogs and Pigs report confirmation that pork supplies are going to stay tight for 2011 provides ample support to expectations for continued strength in the cash hog market over the foreseeable future according to DTN’s John Harington.

Analysts see smaller supply of corn

Ahead of Thursday’s quarterly stocks update, analysts see USDA corn stocks down on the year with wheat and soybeans up.

The average estimate for corn stocks as of September 1 is 1.407 billion bushels, compared to 4.310 billion on June 1 and 1.673 billion last year at this time.

Soybean stocks are expected to be around 151 million bushels, a seasonal drop from the 571 million reported in June but up from 138 million bushels a year ago.

Wheat stocks are pegged at 2.440 billion bushels, compared to 973 million last quarter and 2.209 billion last year.

USDA will also be releasing updated wheat production estimates.

The total crop is seen at 2.267 billion bushels, which would be up modestly from last month and more than 50 million bushels above a year ago.

Winter wheat’s projected at 1.524 billion bushels, pretty much unchanged on the year, with spring wheat up sharply at 636 million bushels.

Both reports are out 7:30 AM Central Thursday.

Nebraska corn harvest at ten percent

Nebraska’s corn harvest reached ten percent complete as of Sunday, a little ahead of the five-year average of seven percent.  Soybean harvest is nine percent complete, compared to the 10 percent average.

Meanwhile, the corn crop maturity reached 78 percent, well ahead of the 59 average, while soybeans dropping leaves were at 81 percent, compared to the 74 average.

Winter wheat seeding in Nebraska was 69 percent complete, a little ahead of average.  Twenty-five percent of winter wheat has emerged, behind the 31 average.

Sticks and stones

Words are powerful, friends. They might not cause physical damage in the near term, but over time, words can indeed bring you, your family, your community and your industry great pain.

Not so very many years ago, people knew that a ‘puppy mill’ was a substandard kennel where diseased, mistreated, over-bred dogs were kept in filthy cages without the benefit of veterinary care. Today, owners of legitimate dog kennels across this country are being demonized because activist groups have successfully broadened the definition of ‘puppy mill’ to include just about any kennel.

Some radical anti-animal agriculture group dubbed any modern farm that produces meat, milk or eggs a ‘factory farm.’

What impact did the inaccurate ‘swine flu’ label for H1N1 flu have on the pork industry? Russia, China and other countries banned imports of pork from the U.S.

And how about bovine spongiform encephalopathy, BSE dubbed Mad Cow Disease by those all-knowing scientific intellectuals who write for British tabloids:

Unfortunately, many in the ag industry have accepted that the tabloid term and use it today.

It was good advice my parents offered all those years ago when they told us we should think before we speak.

Audio

Not everywhere will see increased wheat acres

Jerry McReynolds, President of the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) from northwest Kansas does not see wheat acres increasing in his part of the country simply because cropping patterns have changed. But in southwest Indiana, Greg Anthis, Crop Consultant with Crop Production Services says higher wheat prices are driving a significant increase in wheat acres.

AUDIO: Jerry McReynolds, Kansas, Greg Anthis, Indiana (3:00 MP3)