Friday 27th January 2012

2010 wheat crop below trade projections

USDA’s 2010 wheat production numbers came out below trade expectations.

The Ag Department has the total crop at 2.224 billion bushels, which was at the low end of trade estimates but still up from 2009′s 2.216 billion bushels.

Average yield was pegged at 46.7 bushels per acre, compared to 44.5 a year ago.

Planted area was reported at 53.603 million acres, compared to 59.168 million last year, with harvested area at 47.567 million acres, compared to 49.893 million in 2009.

Winter wheat came out at 1.485 billion bushels, compared to the average estimate of 1.524 billion bushels and 2009′s total of 1.523 billion. Hard red winter made up the bulk of the total at 1.018 billion bushels with soft red winter at 237.804 million bushels and white winter at 229.095 million bushels.

Average yield for winter wheat was 46.8 bushels per acre, compared to 44.2 a year ago.

The planted area totaled 37.335 million acres, compared to 43.346 million last year, with harvested area at 31.749 million acres, compared to 34.510 million in 2009.

Spring wheat was reported at 626.937 million bushels, compared to the pre-report projection of 636 million bushels and the 2009 total of 584 million.

The average yield was pegged at 46.9 bushels per acre, compared to 45.1 a year ago.

Planted area came out at 13.698 million acres, compared to 13.268 million last year, with harvested area at 13.379 million acres, compared to 12.955 million in 2009.

[Read more...]

The impact of higher corn prices on the ethanol industry

If corn prices continue to rise, could we see a scenario similar to 2008, when many ethanol producers struggled financially and several were forced out of business?  At a recent news conference in Omaha, the CEO of Omaha-based ethanol producer Green Plains Energy, Todd Becker, reminded us that higher corn prices were not the chief reason for the ethanol industry’s woes in 2008.

AUDIO: Todd Becker (3 min MP3)

Which dairy plan is the best?

As the groundwork is being laid for the next farm bill, there are a number of proposals and plans being tossed around for the dairy policy in that bill. Three agricultural economists from three well-known ag colleges have analyzed the three main programs currently being proposed. Mark Stephenson, Director of Dairy Policy Analysis at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Scott Brown with the Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri and Charles Nicholson with Cal Poly San Luis Obispo “ran the numbers” on what milk prices would do under the Costa-Sanders bill introduced in Congress, the Marginal Milk Pricing plan put forth by Agri-Mark Cooperative and the Foundation for the Future plan from the National Milk Producers Federation.

Basically they found that all three plans would reduce price volatility and reduce government cost. Some would be more beneficial to Class III and Class IV producers and each would have an impact on overall milk production.

AUDIO: Mark Stephenson’s comments

AUDIO: Scott Brown’s comments

AUDIO: Chuck Nicholson’s comments

Read the Stephenson-Nicholson full report here:

Read the FAPRI report on Foundation for the Future here:

Farmers “need long outlook” on technology

Veterinarian Bill Zimmer, head of Bio-Vet, says while his company is a leader in direct-fed microbial and nutritional products, technology has its limits. He says dairy farmers need to have a long outlook on technology and whether it’s making them money. Zimmer says producers need to assess their payback on the products they use. And, in some cases, he says going through the downturn in milk prices has forced dairy farmers to become better managers.

AUDIO: Bill Zimmer, DVM (11 min. MP3)

It has been wet north of the border too

It has been a wet year across the northern part of the United States…and north of the border as well. Chris Kletke is with Manitoba Forage, he says while the hay crop in Manitoba has been excellent it has been a real challenge getting it off. He says the tonnage is there but the quality has suffered.

AUDIO: Kletke talks about the Manitoba hay crop

How to rebuild equity

It has been a couple of very trying years for dairy producers, milk prices plunged to below cost of production and stayed there. While many producers have been able to stay in business, they have lost all of their equity. Gary Sipiorski is known for his expertise in dairy financing and he is conducting a seminar at World Dairy Expo advising producers what is needed to rebuild that equity.

AUDIO: Sipiorski talks about what’s needed

ADM announces a new “Game Plan”

Many companies in the dairy industry use World Dairy Expo as the stage to announce new products and services. ADM took the opportunity to announce a collaborative effort between ADM Alliance Nutrition and the Keenan Company of Ireland. The Game Plan Program is an effort to use the mixing expertise of Keenan to deliver ADM nutrition to dairy herds. Matt Gabler with ADM says the bottom line is to improve feed efficiency for American dairy producers.

ADUIO: Gabler talks about the joint effort

If you have livestock, you have flies

Anytime you have livestock, feed and moisture…you are going to have flies. Tracy Harris is with Central Life Sciences and he says not all flies around the farm are the same so they have to be dealt with in a different manner. Basically, you need a total fly-control program. Harris says producers need to sit down with a specialist and assess the situation on the farm, reduce the habitat for flies and then come in with a program designed to solve the problem.

AUDIO: Harris talks about the need for a plan

Pioneer’s alfalfa research benefits growers

Pioneer Hi-Bred plant breeders are testing and selecting for winter hardiness at the Alfalfa Research Center in Arlington, Wisconsin.  Dave Miller, Senior Research Manager and Research Scientist led a media tour of the facility in conjunction with World Dairy Expo in Madison, Wisconsin.  Pioneer focuses on five main categories of alfalfa varieties:  the muscle, forage quality, leafhopper resistant, lodging resistant and western-adapted varieties.

AUDIO: Dave Miller (8 min. MP3)

Soybeans lower on harvest pressure

Soybeans were lower on fund selling and harvest pressure, along with end of the month and end of the quarter position squaring. Also, traders were getting ready for Thursday’s quarterly stocks update with most analysts expecting for a year to year increase. China did buy 165,000 tons of new crop U.S. beans ahead of the open, which limited losses. Soybean meal and oil were lower following soybeans with oil picking up at least some additional pressure from China’s announcement of vegetable oil sales from state reserves. First notice day deliveries for October soybean meal and oil contracts on Thursday are expected to be heavy against oil and fairly light on meal. USDA’s weekly export sales numbers are also out Thursday at 7:30 AM Central. Soybeans are pegged at 800,000 to 1.5 million tons, soybean meal is seen at 75,000 to 175,000 and oil is placed at 20,000 to 110,000 tons.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying, along with solid end user demand linked to continued concerns over crop yields. Traders do expect a year to year decline in quarterly stocks Thursday morning, which helped most contracts get back to support levels not long after the open. Corn wants to see yields and weather looks pretty good across most of the Cornbelt for much of this week. Ethanol futures were higher. Weekly U.S. corn sales are expected to be between 550,000 and 850,000 tons.

The wheat complex was mixed in general consolidation trade. Nearby contracts hit four month lows overnight, which exhausted at least some of the selling interest ahead of updated USDA production and quarterly stocks numbers. Contracts were lower for most of the session on forecasts for more rainfall in Russia and Ukraine. However, that precipitation is expected to be widely scatted, and stateside, some U.S. winter wheat growing areas are too dry to plant. The recent rain in Eastern Europe did help Russian wheat planting make a significant jump in the past week and 86% of their summer crop is harvested with the total at 58.2 million tons. In any event, there’ll be some fresh fundamental influence after the USDA numbers. European what was lower on fund selling with November Paris hitting a 6-week low before closing .9% lower and November London down 1.2%. National Bank Australia pegs that nation’s 2010/11 wheat crop at 23.8 million tons. Egypt bought 110,000 tons of U.S. soft white. Weekly U.S. sales are estimated at 600,000 to 900,000 tons.