Friday 27th January 2012

Not much change at the grocery store this year

Not much change in retail food prices so far this year. The Wisconsin Farm Bureau’s Market Basket Survey finds the 20 basic food items cost $53.46 for the second quarter of the year, 38 cents more than the first quarter.

Compared to the first three months of the year, sliced bacon increased 56 cents per pound to $4.77, whole chicken increased 19 cents to $1.70 per pound, chicken breasts increased 19 cents and potatoes are 18 cents higher.

Tomatoes decreased 28 cents a pound to $1.81, corn oil declined 26 cents to $3.34 and eggs dropped 39 cents to $1.04 per dozen.

Twelve of the survey’s 20 items saw their prices change by less than 3 percent since the first quarter survey. The average prices of a loaf of wheat bread and quart of orange juice did not change at all.

While individual prices varied more, overall the market basket is just 8 cents higher than a year ago. Sirloin tip roast, whole milk and tomatoes all have seen their prices increase by over 10 percent since the past year. Butter, potatoes and corn oil prices have all decreased by over 10 percent. Only two of the survey’s 20 items have changed by less than 3 percent over the past year, orange juice and pork chops.

According to USDA, just 19 percent of a consumer’s food dollar now goes to the farmer meaning of the $53.46 spent on the 20 items, the farmer share is $10.16.

Americans spend just under 10 percent of their disposable annual income on food, the lowest average of any country in the world.

Ag research needs to look beyond productivity

A new report from the National Research Council says “national agricultural policies and research programs should look beyond low costs and high production and adopt a holistic perspective to farming that encompasses multiple end goals.”

The NRC study found that while farmers in the U.S. have become much more productive, “agriculture has external costs that are mostly unaccounted for in productivity measurements.” It cites as examples, declining water tables, increased nitrogen and phosphorus levels in surface water and oxygen-starved zones in waterways along with nitrous oxide and methane gas emissions.

The report also notes the growing challenges to farmers from consumer concerns about animal treatment, farm income not keeping up with rising production costs and the fact more than half of U.S. farm operators have off-farm jobs to supplement their income and for health insurance and retirement benefits.

In the end, ag policy and research should not only seek to increase production and productivity, it should also seek to enhance environmental quality, maintain economic viability of agriculture and improve the quality of life for farmers, farm workers and society as a whole. To achieve those goals, the committee calls for “long-term research, education, outreach and experimentation by the public and private sectors in partnership with farmers.”

The report was sponsored by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the W.K. Kellogg Foundation. The NRC is part of the non-profit National Academy of Sciences created by Congress in 1863 to advise the federal government on scientific and technological matters.

More information available here:

This is Energy Independence Week

The Wisconsin Bio Industry Alliance has declared this Energy Independence Week. The group says the week leading up to Independence Day is an opportunity to discuss our growing dependence on foreign oil and the positive opportunities that domestic fuels like ethanol can play in securing our energy independence. Along with that, WBIA Executive Director Josh Morby says it is also about improving our environment. Morby notes the U.S. spends more than $1 billion a day on imported foreign oil.

Farm profits decreased a bit in June

The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in June decreased 1.4 percent from May. The Crop Index was 3.3 percent lower and the Livestock Index slipped 0.8 percent. Farmers received lower prices for cattle, hogs, wheat and onions, higher prices for milk, turkeys, lettuce and cucumbers.

In the Crop Index, the June corn price was $3.38 per bushel, down a dime from last month, soybeans were 2 cents lower at $9.39 per bushel, the all wheat price was $3.80 per bushel, down 53 cents from May while the all hay price was $2.00 lower at $114 per ton in June.

On the Livestock Index side, the average June hog price was $57.70 per hundredweight, down $4.40 from May. Beef cattle were $3.70 lower averaging $91.10. The all milk price increased 70 cents per hundredweight to $15.80. Broilers held steady from May at 51 cents per pound, Turkeys were 5.6 cents higher at 61.7 cents per pound. Eggs slipped 1.9 cents to 42.2 cents per dozen.

The Index of Prices Paid by Farmers edged 0.5 percent lower from May to June. Prices were lower for feeder cattle, feeder pigs, diesel, gasoline, LP, nitrogen and feed supplements. They paid more for complete feeds, potash and phosphate fertilizer, pesticides and other machinery.

Compared to a year ago, farmers received 4.5 percent higher prices for their products but paid 1.1 percent more for goods and services.

Read the full NASS report here:

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: June 29, 2010

July corn closed at $3.25, down 8 and 3/4 cents
July soybeans closed at $9.47 and 1/4, down 7 and 3/4 cents
July soybean meal closed at $289.80, down $2.50
July soybean oil closed at 35.93, down 101 points
July wheat closed at $4.42, down 7 and 1/2 cents
June live cattle closed at $90.67, down 52 cents
July lean hogs closed at $78.75, down 77 cents
August crude oil closed at $75.94, down $2.31
July cotton closed at 83.68, down 81 points
July Class III milk closed at $13.62, up 1 cent
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 9,870.30, down 268.22 points

Weak Dow, strong dollar stymie grain, soybean demand

Soybeans were lower on improved weather. New crop soybeans got a brief boost from the wet weather over the weekend, but it didn’t last. Crop conditions should begin to recover from excessive rain. There are questions about how many acres will be lost to prevented planting. Wednesday’s report may reveal less than expected soybean acreage due to the wet spring and fast pace of corn planting. Soybean exports aren’t much, but shipments are up since September 1.

Corn futures were lower on ideas that pollination weather will be mild. USDA reported a 2 percent loss from the good to excellent crop condition category. The stronger dollar combined with the weaker euro was also a bearish feature for corn resulting in lighter export demand. The market also responded negatively to the sharply lower Dow Jones average.  Traders may be building in a worst case scenario for corn acreage. It would not be a surprise to see the acreage number toward high end of expectations, considering the early start to the planting season. Prior to the market opening on Tuesday, there was a corn sale to China of 230,000 metric tons limiting losses during the session.

Wheat was lower on the sharp sell-off from last week’s highs. Renewed strength in the dollar and continued weakness in corn were bearish for wheat. As expected, winter wheat harvest is progressing at a nice clip in the Plains due to favorable weather. In addition, yields and protein are better-than-expected. USDA shows 38 percent of the crop in the bin. Condition ratings on winter wheat dipped this past week from 65 percent good to excellent down to 64 percent good to excellent. Spring wheat is 84 percent good to excellent. An added bearish feature for wheat is that exports remain disappointing.

Implications of China-Canada beef agreement

Last week’s announcement that mainland China will reopen to Canadian beef is a significant development, as both the U.S. and Canada have been shut out of the Chinese market for several years due to lingering BSE-related trade restrictions.

The president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), Phil Seng, says the agreement will likely provide Canada with an important “head start” in reestablishing sales channels in China.

“This has a lot of impact because as Canada gets in there first, there’s major supermarket chains in there, there’s major big box companies in there—and they’re going to have access to those folks first,” says Seng.

But Seng says the agreement could provide a long-term benefit to the U.S. beef industry by serving as a prototype for a similar agreement between the U.S. and China. “The USMEF and our negotiators will be looking very closely at the Canadian agreement,” he says, “to see what provisions within that we can work with, in order that we might have that same access.”

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association has been critical of the administration and Congress for not being more aggressive with China on the beef issue.

Livestock markets end lower on outside pressure

It was generally quiet in cattle country on Tuesday afternoon. Private sources did report a few sales in Kansas and Texas at 90.00. Packer inquiry was very slow in the North but light to moderate in the South. Asking prices are around 92.00 to 93.00 South with bids at 90.00 and 146.00 to 148 in the North where bids were from 143.00 to 146.00. Cattle slaughter is estimated at 130,000 head, 2,000 more than last week, but the same as last year. Boxed beef cutout values were steady to firm on light to moderate demand and offerings. Choice boxed beef was .23 higher at 155.12, and select was up .47 at 146.48.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled 52 to 135 points lower on profit taking after the recent advances in the market. The focus in the cattle market actually had very little to do with cattle, and most traders closely watched the sharp losses in the outside markets and the stock market. The Dow fell below 10,000 points on the concerns of the European financial markets and consumer uneasiness about the economy. June live cattle settled .52 lower at 90.67, and August was down .92 at 88.75.

Feeder cattle finished the session 65 to 110 points lower on profit taking and the selloff in the live cattle pit. Feeder contracts were lightly traded throughout the session. August settled 1.10 lower at 112.87, and September was down .97 at 113.10.

Feeder receipts at the Sioux Falls Regional Stockyards at Worthing, SD totaled 1333 head on Monday. Feeder steers and heifers were lightly tested last week, compared to this week’s larger offering feeder steers and heifers sold steady with higher undertones. Demand was very good for all weights and classes. Feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing an average of 908 lbs brought 106.00 per hundredweight, 876 lb heifers traded at 103.37.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade closed .66 lower at 76.28 on a carcass basis, the West was down .14 at 76.22, and the East closed 1.04 higher at 80.22. The Missouri direct base carcass meat price closed steady at 72.00. Tuesday’s hog slaughter was estimated at 402,000 head, 14,000 more than last week, but 16,000 less than last year.  Country movement has been moderate to start the week, but it is unclear as to how well packers have their slaughter needs covered. Look for daily kills close to 400,000 over the next three days, a slaughter of 370,000 or so on Friday, and a complete work stoppage on Saturday and next Monday for the Fourth of July Holiday.

Lean hogs settled 10 to 122 points lower on outside market pressure. Higher cash prices at midday did very little to help the futures market, which was concerned about weakness in the global market. July was .77 lower at settlement at 78.75, and August was down 1.22 at 80.95. Pork trading was slow to moderate, with mostly light demand and light to moderate offerings. The pork carcass cutout was down .92 at 82.16.

Pork bellies ended the session unchanged to 20 points lower on spillover pressure from the lean pit. July was unchanged at 101.20, and August was .20 lower at 96.75.

Acreage estimates out Wednesday morning

When the USDA releases its planted acreage estimate Wednesday morning, traders expect to see more corn and soybean acres—and less spring wheat. 

The average pre-report estimate puts corn acres at 89-point-two million—up about 400 thousand from the March prospective plantings report—and the highest since 1945.  Soybeans acres are pegged by the trade at a record large 78-point-one million acres—up less than 100 thousand acres from March.  Spring wheat acres are expected to be about 200 thousand below March intentions.

There is, however, some uncertainty as to how those numbers will play out.  Some analysts believe the early start to corn planting may mean more corn acres were planted.  However, a nationwide email survey of farmers in the Farm Journal database indicates a drop in corn acreage and an increase in soybean acreage.  AgWeb pegs U.S. corn acreage at 88-point-four million and soybeans at 78-point-seven million acres.

The USDA will also release updated quarterly grain stock estimates.

Is JBS pursuing Smithfield?

There are reports that giant meatpacker JBS may renew discussions with Smithfield Foods to expand into the pork market.  And analysts say Smithfield may be open to talks with JBS due to its current delicate financial situation. 

JBS purchased Smithfield BeefGroup, a subsidiary of Smithfield, in 2008.  And the company recently bought a majority stake in chicken producer Pilgrim’s Pride for 800-million dollars as the company restructured.

The market value of Smithfield is estimated to be around two-point-five billion dollars.