Friday 27th January 2012

Nice gains for dairy on the week

Dairy markets ended the week on a high note, cash cheese barrels on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange increased 2.5 cents on Friday to close at $1.3125 while blocks gained 3.5 cents to close at $1.325. For the week, barrels gained 4.75 cents and blocks increased 5.5 cents.

Seems the increasing cheese prices have prompted some buyers to step up to the plate however Dairy Market News there has not been enough activity to prompt overtime at packagers. Some believe there will not be a substantial increase in cheese prices until summer heat starts to influence milk production. Right now, milk production is picking up in most regions of the country.

The total number of dairy cows sent to slaughter in February was 223,000, which is 9,000 less than in January and 20,000 less than February of 2009. 70,000 of the cows shipped in February were from Arizona, California, Nevada and Hawaii, 69,000 came out of the upper Midwest.

For the first two months of the year, 455,000 dairy cows went to slaughter, 69,000 less than the first two months of last year.

Analysts expect increase in corn, soybean acreage

Ahead of USDA’s 2010 prospective planting update, analysts expect year to year increases for corn and soybean acreage against a decrease for wheat.

The average estimate for soybean acreage is 78.550 million acres, compared to 77.5 million in 2009 as producers try to keep up with biodiesel and export demand.

Corn’s projected to be around 88.941 million acres, compared to 86.5 million a year ago on expectations for increased ethanol use.

Total wheat area is expected to be down nearly 6 million acres at 53.325 million acres because of the large global supply.

However, spring wheat acreage could be up roughly a quarter of a million acres at 13.558 million acres on comparatively greater demand for spring wheat.

Winter wheat planted area is seen at 37.319 million acres, compared to 43.3 million in 2009 and durum planted area is pegged at 2.470 million acres, compared to 2.6 million a year ago.

USDA will also be updating quarterly corn, soybean and wheat stocks.

Corn stocks are expected to be 7.505 billion bushels, in a range of 7.318 billion to 7.758 billion, with soybeans at 1.207 billion bushels, in a range of 1.160 billion to 1.270 billion, and wheat at 1.364 billion, in a range of 1.332 billion to 1.398 billion bushels.

The numbers are 7:30 AM Central on Wednesday, March 31.

Corn, soybeans post modest gains

Soybeans were higher on technical buying, short covering and the lower dollar. The other outside markets were mixed with the Dow eventually closing firm, crude oil modestly lower and gold up. Fundamentals continue to turn negative because of the expected record South American crop, but near term demand should stay generally solid. Traders are getting ready for the upcoming USDA numbers with quarterly stocks and prospective planting updates out March 31. Soybean meal and oil were higher on technical buying and spillover from soybeans.

Corn was higher on short covering, technical buying and the lower dollar. There was no real fresh news and corn’s also getting ready for the USDA numbers. Fundamentals remain negative with a large available supply and neutral at best demand, pushing corn to a 5% loss on the week. Planting weather looks fairly good over the next week or so and most in the trade expect at least some year to year increase in U.S. planted acreage. There is a chance for a wet Easter weekend but that’s dependent on area and has varied by forecast. Ethanol futures were higher.

The wheat complex was lower on a lack of follow through buying and consolidation. Fundamentals remain extremely negative with a very large supply and poor demand for U.S. wheat. Still, as long as traders have this huge net short position, wheat could post gains. In any event, for the second session in a row, May Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis notched new contract lows. USDA’s March 31 quarterly stocks update is expected to be bearish but ahead of the prospective planting report, the average pre-report projection has a small increase in spring wheat area. European wheat was higher on new crop buying interest; May Paris was up .4% and May London gained 1.3%. Belgian trade firm Coceral has the 2010 European soft wheat crop at 133.1 million tons, up 1.8% from 2009, with the total grain crop at 287 million tons, down more than 6 million due to a drop in barley production.

Great Outdoor Conference

The Obama Administration plans to host a White House Conference on America’s Great Outdoors. It will address modern day land conservation and the importance of reuniting people with the outdoors. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilisack says the conference will not only be about learning the methods of conservation that are in use, but also about listening and recognize those who protect natural resources.

“The focus of the USDA on this White House conference is making sure that contribution that individual farm families and ranch families make every single day on our private working lands, is recognized,” said Vilsack.

The conference will bring together communities from across the country to tell about the conservation practices they have enacted. The discussion will focus on the opportunities communities have in conservation, the challenges they face, and innovative solutions to prevent failure.

“This is an opportunity for us highlight that and focus additional attention on the need for us to do an even better job of assisting those folks at the local level to conserve the soil quality, to enhance water quality, and to have the country understand from a rural perspective the significant economic value that is generated with we do take care of our natural resources in terms of hunting fishing and other recreational opportunities,” said Vilsack.

Vilasack says the conference is an opportunity to get economic value not just out of conservation itself but also from the hunting and fishing opportunities it creates. He says hunting and fishing alone are worth $200 million annually in rural America and are a significant part of outdoor recreation value.

The conference will be held on Friday, April 16 in Washington D.C.

U.S. hog and pig inventory smaller than expected

USDA’s quarterly hogs and pigs inventory update looks friendly for the futures market. Allendale Inc. broker and analyst David Kohli tells Brownfield the report looks especially supportive for the summer contracts.

As of March 1, the total U.S. hog and pig herd was 63.988 million head, down 2% on the quarter and 3% on the year and a larger cut than analysts had been expecting. The average pre-report guess was 98.9% of a year ago, with a range of 98.1% to 99.9%.

The market inventory was also down 2% on the quarter and 3% on the year at 58.228 million head with the breeding herd 4% less than last quarter and 2% below last year at 5.760 million.

Market hogs weighing less than 50 pounds were 4% smaller than a year ago at 19.017 million head, with the 50 to 119 pound inventory down 3% at 15.993 million, 120 to 179 pounders 2% below a year ago at 12.477 million and hogs weighing 180 pounds and over were placed at 10.742 million head, a 1% decrease.

USDA pegged the December-February pig crop at 27.873 million head, down 2% from a year ago, with farrowings for the same period at 2.901 million head, down 4% and pigs per litter at 9.61, an increase of 1%.

March-May farrowing intentions were reported at 2.898 million head, a drop of 4% from a year ago and June to August intentions came out at 2.887 million head, 2% below last year.

Iowa consultant evaluates South American crops

An Iowa crop consultant, just back from a crop scouting trip to South America, says the crops there look good—but perhaps not quite as good as advertised.

Bob Streit with Central Iowa Agronomics in Boone, Iowa says excessive rains in Brazil delayed planting early on and have also interfered with the timely application of pesticides and fungicides—which is affecting yields. 

“It’s kind of like a game of liars’ poker in that, up north, visiting with the top scientists and seeing the fields, crop size is probably overestimated by three to five bushels per acre in the north,” says Streit, “and in the south, about 40 percent of the beans got planted quite a few weeks late because it was just too wet—and (there’s) a terrible amount of rust down there in the fields.”

In fact, Streit says the severity of the rust was the worst he’s ever seen.

“I said it was just like the old Charlie Brown TV shows where, whenever Pig Pen walked around, there was a big cloud of dust behind him,” says Streit. “When walked through the fields, there was just a big red cloud of spores billowed behind us.”

A new development, Streit reports, is SCN and root knot nematode populations increasing to the point that they are causing major problems.

However, Streit says the crops in Argentina look very good, with most of the beans either near final pod fill or just beginning to show the yellowish color of maturity.

AUDIO: Bob Streit (7 min MP3)

The quarterly hog report looks friendly

The slaughter cattle trade took place early in the week as cattle futures weakened. Cattle on a live basis traded 1.00 to 2.00 lower from 94.00 to 97.00, and 1.00 lower dressed from 151.00 to 153. Negotiated cash trades through Friday morning totaled about 175,448 head; the previous week saw 153,836 cash trades. Boxed beef cutout values continued to make sharp advances with light supplies and moderate to good demand. Hard winter weather across the feeding areas has proven tough on slaughter cattle as carcass weights continue to run thirty pounds lighter than a year ago. The weekly cattle slaughter is estimated at 615,000 head, 1,000 less than last week and 3,000 under last year. Boxed beef cutouts on Friday were steady to weak on light demand and offerings. Choice beef was down .09 at 162.69 and select was down .43 at 160.33.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled unchanged to 82 points lower on some positioning ahead of the weekend along with fund selling and spreading. The cash markets softer tone this week did not seem to have a significant effect on the futures market with non commercial traders holding tight to their current positions. April settled .72 lower at 94.02, and June was down .55 at 91.57.

Feeder cattle settled 10 to 72 lower on the bearish price premiums to the board’s feeder cattle index and spillover pressure from the live pit. April settled .27 lower at 107.20, and May was down .72 at 108.15.

Missouri weekly weighted average feeder cattle report. Receipts totaled 22,299 cattle at Missouri auctions this week.  Compared to last week feeders were steady to 2.00 higher. Feeder steers medium and large 1 and 1-2 weighing 500 to 600 pounds traded from 99.00 to 133.50 per hundredweight, 7 to 8 weights brought 86.00 to 113.00. 500 to 600 pound heifers traded from 90.50 to 116.50, and 7 to 8 weights from 84.50 to 103.50.

Barrows in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade closed .68 lower on a carcass basis, the West was down .75 at 66.03, and the East was up .72 at 66.04. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady at 62.00 on Friday. The weekly hog slaughter is estimated at 2,188,000 head, 22,000 more than last week, and 30,000 greater than last year. Pork processing margins improved throughout the week, a reality that should soon help cash stabilize and firm seasonal numbers begin to tighten.

Lean hogs settled 30 to 162 points lower on the soft cash trade and many traders were out of the market until after the release of the hogs and pigs report.  The report at first glimpse appears bullish with the total herd down two-percent for the quarter and three- percent on the year.  The biggest question for the market right now is if the decreases are starting to reverse or if further cuts may be seen in the next couple of months. April settled .45 lower at 69.67 and June was down 1.60 at 78.02. Pork trading was slow to moderate with light to moderate demand and moderate offerings. Pork carcass cutout value was down 1.52 at 70.76.

The pork belly trade remained sluggish with pressure on both the May and June contracts. Most traders appeared to be staying out of the market until after the release of the hog inventory report. May settled 1.25 lower at 97.70.

Debate over ethanol subsidies heats up

With this week’s introduction of legislation to extend the ethanol blenders’ tax credit for another five years, the long-running debate over ethanol subsidies is heating up once again. 

On one side are the nation’s livestock and meat producers—J. Patrick Boyle, president and CEO of the American Meat Institute saying, “it’s time for the corn-based ethanol industry to stop using the American taxpayers as a crutch and finally compete on its own in our free market system.”  

Among those defending the subsidy is Tom Buis, CEO of the ethanol lobbying group Growth Energy—who says it provides a huge return on investment. 

“For that five-billion dollars in the blenders’ tax credit, you get reduced U.S. government farm program payments by eight billion dollars,” says Buis. “You get tax revenue from the ethanol industry of 8½ billion dollars.” 

Buis says the subsidy also helps hold down gas prices, saving consumers 40 to 56 billion dollars annually at the gas pump—and, he says, it also creates jobs. 

“The industry is responsible for about 400-thousand jobs currently,” he says. “We know, moving forward—just for example—going from E10 to E15 will create another 130-thousand jobs—right here in America, that can’t be outsourced.” 

The American Farm Bureau has expressed its support for the extension–president Bob Stallman calling it a giant step towards energy independence and vitally important to rural economies. 

In expressing his support for the extension, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey points to the damage done to the biodiesel industry by Congress’ failure to extend the bioediesel tax credit.  

The president of the South Dakota Corn Growers Association, Gary Duffy, also expressed strong support, calling ethanol’s economic boost to South Dakota communities “unparalleled.”

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: March 26, 2010

May corn closed at $3.56 and 1/4, up 1 and 1/4 cents
May soybeans closed at $9.52, up 9 and 1/2 cents
May soybean meal closed at $270.90, up $5.00
May soybean oil closed at 38.95, up 25 points
May wheat closed at $4.64 and 3/4, down 1 and 3/4 cents
April live cattle closed at $94.02, down 72 cents
April lean hogs closed at $69.67, down 45 cents
May crude oil closed at $80.00, down 53 cents
May cotton closed at 79.69, down 49 points
April Class III milk closed at $12.62, up 8 cents
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 10,850.36, up 9.15 points

Reps urge more access to US beef in Japan

Republican Congressmen Roy Blunt of Missouri and Jerry Moran of Kansas have introduced a resolution in the House supporting increased market access for U.S. beef exports to Japan.  The measure calls for Japan to immediately expand access for US beef products and is similar to legislation sponsored by Nebraska’s Mike Johanns in the Senate that urges the Obama Administration to insist on increased market access from Japan.

Blunt says Japan’s stance is “unfair, damaging and ill-advised trade policy that not only hurts American cattlemen, but also Japanese consumers.”

National Cattlemen’s Beef Association President Steve Fogelsong calls the ban an “unscientific trade restriction” that’s “not consistent with fair-trade practices nor with U.S. treatment of Japanese imports.” He says it costs the US beef industry more than one billion dollars in lost exports each year.

Japan first banned U.S. beef six years ago due to a single case of BSE.  Today, it only imports U.S. beef from cattle 20 months of age and younger.