USDA lowers soybean ending stocks, raises corn and wheat

USDA’s monthly supply and demand update showed stronger than expected demand for soybeans and weaker than anticipated demand for corn and wheat.

2009/10 wheat ending stocks were reported at 1.001 billion bushels, compared to the average pre-report projection of 971 million bushels and February’s estimate of 981 million bushels. USDA lowered the food demand use 20 million bushels to 920 million taking domestic use to 1.162 billion and total use to 1.987 billion bushels. The average 2009/10 farm price is estimated at $4.80 to $5.00 per bushel, compared to February’s range of $4.75 to $4.95 and the 2008/09 estimate of $6.78 per bushel.

2009/10 corn ending stocks came out at 1.799 billion bushels, compared to the pre-report estimate of 1.716 billion bushels and February’s projection of 1.719 billion bushels. With 2009 production now pegged at 13.131 billion bushels, total supply is placed at 14.814 billion bushels, down 20 million from February. USDA left domestic supply unchanged while lowering export demand by 100 million bushels to 1.900 billion, taking total use to 13.015 billion bushels. The average 2009/10 farm price is estimated at $3.45 to $3.75 per bushel, compared to $3.45 to $3.95 in February and the 2008/09 estimate of $4.06 per bushel.

2009/10 soybean ending stocks were pegged at 190 million bushels, compared to the average pre-report guess of 195 million and February’s estimate of 210 million bushels. USDA revised 2009 soybean production to 3.359 billion bushels while raising imports to 15 million, taking total supply to 3.512 billion bushels. USDA raised the crush 10 million bushels to 1.730 billion and increased export demand 20 million to 1.420 billion bushels while lowering seed use 5 million to 89 million bushels for total use of 3.322 billion bushels, an increase of 25 million bushels. The average 2009/10 farm price is estimated at $8.95 to $9.95, compared to February’s range of $8.70 to $10.20 and the 2008/09 estimate of $9.97 per bushel.

2009/10 soybean oil ending stocks were reported at 2.637 billion pounds, compared to 2.227 billion in February. With USDA raising the soybean crush estimate, production is now pegged at 19.270 billion pounds, taking total supply to 22.087 billion. USDA lowered domestic use 300 million pounds to 16.200 billion while leaving biodiesel and export use unchanged, putting total use at 19.450 billion pounds. The average 2009/10 farm price is estimated at $.3350 to $.3650 per pound, unchanged from February and up from the 2008/09 estimate of $.3216 per pound.

2009/10 soybean meal ending stocks came out at 300,000 short tons, unchanged from a month ago and up 65,000 from a year ago. USDA lowered domestic use by 200,000 short tons while increasing exports 200,000, leaving total use at 40.600 million short tons. The average 2009/10 farm price is estimated at $280 to $310 per short ton, compared to February’s range of $270 to $320 and the 2008/09 estimate of $331.17 per short ton.

2009/10 world wheat ending stocks were reported at 196.77 million bushels, compared to 195.86 million in February. USDA now sees global production at 678.01 million tons, up less than a million from last month, projecting bigger crops for Argentina, India and most of the former Soviet Union and smaller crops in the European Union and Middle East. Feed use was increased by 850,000 tons to 112.36 million and exports were raised 1.25 million to 125.05 million tons.

2009/10 world corn ending stocks came out at 140.15 million tons, compared to 134.04 million a month ago. Production is now projected at 803.69 million tons with a decrease in U.S. production canceled out by larger estimates for Argentina, South Africa, Southeast Asia and the former Soviet Union excluding Russia and Ukraine. USDA has global feed use at 493.97 million tons, compared to 493.62 million a month ago and exports are seen at 85.45 million tons, compared to 84.79 million in February.

2009/10 world soybean ending stocks were placed at 60.67 million tons, compared to 59.73 million last month. USDA expects world production to be around 255.91 million tons, up less than a million on the month, with a larger estimate for Brazil offsetting a small downward revision to the U.S. crop. The global crush is seen at 204.95 million tons, compared to 204.22 million a month ago and exports are now projected at 81.18 million tons, down from February’s 81.39 million tons.