Corn, soybean ending stocks smaller than expected

In the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA made larger than expected cuts to 2009/10 U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks while increasing the domestic wheat carryout. USDA didn’t adjust 2009 U.S. corn and soybean production estimates.

2009/10 wheat ending stocks were reported at 981 million bushels, compared to the average pre-report estimate of 973 million and the January estimate of 976 million. The sole change to the domestic balance sheet: USDA raised its projection for imports from 110 million to 115 million bushels on increased demand for South American and European feed wheat in the Southeastern U.S., taking total supply to 2.988 billion bushels. The average 2009/10 farm price is estimated at $4.75 to $4.95 per bushel, compared to $4.70 to $5 in January and the 2008/09 average of $6.78.

2009/10 corn ending stocks came out at 1.719 billion bushels, compared to the pre-report projection of 1.748 billion and January’s estimate of 1.764 billion. Food, seed and industrial use is pegged at 5.565 billion bushels, compared to 5.470 billion a month ago, and ethanol use is seen at 4.300 billion bushels, compared to 4.200 billion a month ago, bringing the domestic use projection to 11.115 billion bushels. The export demand estimate was lowered 50 million bushels to 2 billion, taking total use to 13.115 billion bushels. The average 2009/10 farm price is estimated at $3.45 to $3.95 per bushel, compared to $3.40 to $4 a month ago and the 2008/09 average of $4.06 per bushel.

2009/10 soybean ending stocks were pegged at 210 million bushels, compared to the average pre-report expectation of 219 million bushels and January’s projection of 245 million. The crush estimate was raised 10 million bushels to 1.720 billion and export demand was increased 25 million bushels to 1.400 billion, pushing total use to 3.297 billion bushels. The average 2009/10 farm price is estimated at $8.70 to $10.20 per bushel, compared to January’s range of $8.90 to $10.40 and the 2008/09 average of $9.97.

2009/10 soybean oil ending stocks came out at 2.227 billion pounds, compared to January’s estimate of 2.152 billion. With USDA increasing the soybean crush projection, soybean oil production is now seen at 19.160 billion pounds and total supply is pegged at 21.977 billion pounds. The average 2009/10 farm price is estimated at $.3350 to $.3650 per pound, compared to January’s range of $.36 to $.39 and the 2008/09 average of $.3216.

2009/10 soybean meal stocks were reported at 300,000 short tons, unchanged from January. Production was raised 100,000 short tons to 40.525 million, bringing total supply to 40.900 million, while exports were increased 100,000 to 10 million, taking total use to 40.600 million short tons. The average 2009/10 farm price is estimated at $270 to $320 per short ton, compared to January’s estimate of $265 to $315 and the 2008/09 average of $331.17.

2009/10 world wheat ending stocks are seen at 195.86 million tons, compared to January’s estimate of 195.60 million. USDA raised production from 676.13 million to 677.44 million tons with slight increases for Argentina and Ukraine offsetting a modest decline for the former Soviet Union not including Russia, Kazakhstan or Ukraine. USDA sees world feed wheat demand at 111.51 million tons, compared to 110.61 million a month ago, and exports are projected at 123.80 million tons, compared to 123.20 million in January.

2009/10 world corn ending stocks are estimated at 134.04 million tons, compared to 136.19 million a month ago. USDA increased production to 797.83 million tons on higher projections for Argentina and the European Union against a modest reduction for the former Soviet Union. Corn for feed is seen at 493.62 million tons, compared to 492.52 million last month and exports are pegged at 84.79 million, compared to 84.56 million a month ago.

2009/10 world soybean ending stocks were reported at 59.73 million tons, compared to 59.80 million in January’s update. World production is now projected at 255.02 million tons, compared to 253.38 million a month ago as USDA increased the estimate for Brazil. Total global crush is estimated at 204.22 million tons, compared to 203.86 million a month ago, and exports are pegged at 81.39 million tons, compared to January’s estimate of 80.61 million tons.

Don Roose discusses what the numbers mean (4 minutes MP3)