The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from USDA made some adjustments from last month. The Outlook Board raised its 2010 milk production estimate in response to a slowing in the cull rate at the end of 2009. Milk production is now projected to be 188.4 billion pounds for the year, a 5 million pound increase from last month.
The cheese and butter price forecasts were lowered a bit as a result however stronger export interest pushed nonfat and whey prices higher compared to a month ago. The cheese price was trimmed 4 cents now expected to range between $1.57 and $1.65 per pound. Butter also 4 cents lower at $1.39 to $1.50. The projected price for nonfat dry milk was raised 2.5 cents to range between $1.27 and $1.33 while dry whey is a penny higher, 36.5 to 39.5 cents.
Therefore the Class III price forecast was lowered 40 cents to between $14.75 and $15.55 per hundredweight while the Class IV price forecast was raised a dime from last month now $14.70 to $15.60. The 2010 all milk price estimate is 15 cents lower than last month now pegged from $16.20 to $17.00 per cwt.
Dairy exports for 2009 were adjusted reflecting stronger skim-basis sales but slightly weaker fat-basis sales. Daily Dairy Report says U.S. butterfat, cheese and whey protein exports in November were the highest monthly totals of the year. Cheese exports were 21.1 million pounds, up 13 percent compared to a year ago. Whey exports were up 47 percent to just over 80 million pounds and butterfat exports totaled 13.7 million pounds a 59 percent increase from a year ago. Skim milk powder and nonfat dry milk exports were 43.7 million pounds, 24 percent more than last November. On a value basis, total dairy exports in November were worth $224.5 million, up 2 percent from a year ago and the first year-over-year increase since September of 2008.
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