Soybeans firm on supply, demand and dollar: December 16, 2009

Soybeans were modestly higher on technical buying and spillover from the outside markets. Crude oil was sharply higher following weekly inventory numbers. The Dow was up and the dollar was down ahead of the CBOT close but reversed course after the FOMC left key rates unchanged. Demand remains strong with China buying 116,000 tons of 2009/10 U.S. beans ahead of the open, but contracts may be a little overbought after the recent strength. Soybean meal and oil were higher following the lead of beans. Oil picked up additional support from crude oil and product spread trade. USDA’s weekly export sales report is out Thursday at 7:30 AM Central. Soybeans are pegged at 650,000 to 1 million tons, meal is seen at 125,000 to 250,000 and oil is placed at 5,000 to 25,000 tons.

Corn was higher on late fund buying and spillover from beans and the outside markets. Also, there are continued concerns over the late harvest and quality of the crop. Past that, there wasn’t any real fresh news and demand remains just about neutral. Contracts were mostly weak for a significant portion of the session before the late bounce. Ethanol futures were mostly steady. Weekly U.S. corn sales are expected to be between 500,000 and 900,000 tons.

The wheat complex was higher on technical buying, the higher beans and the lower dollar. When the dollar index moves lower, wheat does tend to move higher. The fundamentals remain very negative with a large available supply and not much demand for U.S. wheat. European wheat was lower on spreading and the bearish fundamentals; January Paris was down .4% and May London was .5% lower. Egypt bought 360,000 tons of wheat from Russia and France (300,000 tons from Russia at $192.75 per ton and 60,000 from France at $193.70). Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada put 2009/10 wheat ending stocks at 7 million tons, compared to 6.1 million in October and 6.556 million in 2008/09. Total wheat production was pegged at 26.515 million tons with 2009/10 Canadian wheat exports at 18 million tons. Weekly U.S. wheat sales are estimated at 200,000 to 450,000 tons.

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