USDA raises soybean ending stocks

USDA has increased 2009/10 ending stocks estimates for soybeans and wheat, while lowering the corn projection slightly.

2009/10 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 885 million bushels, compared to October’s guess of 864 million. Before the report, analysts expected stocks to be around 869 million bushels, in a range of 834 million to 934 million. The USDA now sees harvested area at 49.9 million acres, down from October’s 50.1 million. With production now seen at 2.216 billion bushels, the total supply is pegged at 2.983 billion. On the demand side, domestic estimates were left unchanged while the USDA lowered export demand 25 million to 875 million bushels, bringing total use to 2.098 billion. The 2009/10 average farm price is projected at $4.65 to $5.05 per bushel, compared to October’s range of $4.55 to $5.15 and the 2008/09 estimate of $6.78.

2009/10 U.S. corn ending stocks are seen at 1.625 billion bushels, compared to October’s 1.672 billion. Pre-report estimates ranged from 1.482 billion to 1.909 billion bushels for an average of 1.650 billion. Due to the USDA lowering projected yield and crop size, total supply is pegged at 14.605 billion bushels, compared to October’s guess of 14.702 billion. The USDA cut the export demand estimate by 50 million bushels to 2.100 billion, taking total use to 12.980 billion bushels. The average 2009/10 farm price is seen at $3.25 to $3.85 per bushel, compared to October’s range of $3.05 to $3.65 and the 2008/09 average of $4.06.

2009/10 U.S. soybean ending stocks are placed at 270 million bushels, compared to the October projection of 230 million bushels. The expected month to month increase is because of larger production and yield estimates, which bring total supply to 3.465 billion bushels. The crush is pegged at 1.695 billion bushels, up 5 million from October, exports are seen at 1.325 billion bushels, 20 million more than last month, and residual use is placed at 81 million bushels, 2 million above a month ago, taking total use to 3.195 billion bushels. The average 2009/10 farm price is estimated at $8.20 to $10.20 per bushel, compared to October’s range of $8.00 to $10.00 and the 2008/09 estimate of $9.97.

2009/10 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are estimated at 2.304 billion pounds, compared to 2.380 billion in October. The USDA raised the soybean crush estimate, taking production to 19.240 billion pounds and total supply to 22.054 billion. The biodiesel use projection was increased 100 million pounds to 2.200 billion, putting total use at 19.750 billion pounds. The average 2009/10 farm price is seen at $.33 to $.37 per pound, compared to October’s range of $.32 to $.36 and the 2008/09 average of $.3216.

2009/10 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks are placed at 300,000 short tons, unchanged from October. The USDA lowered 2009/10 beginning stocks (or 2008/09 ending stocks) to 239,000 short tons, but that was offset by expectations for an increase in production. Between the larger U.S. soybean crop and increased crush projection, meal production is estimated at 40.321 million short tons. Imports were cut by 25,000 short tons, to 140,000 tons, leaving the total supply unchanged at 40.700 million. The average 2009/10 farm price is seen at $250 to $310 per short ton, compared to October’s range of $245 to $305 and the 2008/09 average of $331.17.

2009/10 world wheat ending stocks were reported at 188.28 million tons, compared to October’s guess of 186.73 million. The USDA now sees global production at 671.89 million tons, compared to October’s 668.12 million. That’s on increased production estimates for the former Soviet Union offsetting decreased projections for Canada, the European Union and North Africa. Feed use is placed at 111.95 million tons, compared to 110.70 million a month ago, and exports are pegged at 125.32 million, compared to 124.80 million last month.

2009/10 world corn ending stocks came out at 132.41 million tons, compared to the October estimate of 136.25 million. Production is now estimated at 789.73 million tons, compared to October’s 792.54 million tons with increased projections for South Africa and Ukraine offset by smaller production estimates for the U.S., the European Union, Brazil, Canada and the former Soviet Union. Feed use is estimated at 488.51 million tons, down modestly from October’s 488.91 million and exports are projected at 84.08 million, also slightly smaller than October’s estimate of 84.40 million tons.

2009/10 world soybean ending stocks are seen at 57.39 million tons, compared to October’s guess of 54.79 million. Global production is projected at 250.23 million tons, compared to October’s 246.07 million, thanks to expected increases in the U.S., Argentina, Brazil and the European Union. The world crush is pegged at 202.49 million tons, compared to October’s figure of 201.02 million, and exports are placed at 79.37 million, compared to October’s estimate of 77.85 million tons.