Soybeans hit fresh one week highs on technical and speculative buying. Contracts started lower but beans are very concerned about the quality and yield of this year’s crop. Also, the dollar weakened as the session went on and crude oil rallied after initial lower activity. Even with improved harvest weather this week, the near term supply remains very tight. There’s still a lot of uncertainty about the final size of this year’s crop with a new production estimate out Tuesday, November 10. Ahead of those numbers, Linn Group has beans at 3.325 billion bushels and Allendale sees the crop at 3.258 billion, both up from October’s USDA estimate. Soybean meal and oil were higher on spillover from beans and the supply implications of a larger crop. Brazil’s Foreign Trade Ministry states that soybean exports during October were 722,700 tons, compared to 1.83 million in September and 1.06 million for October 2008. The revenue from the sales was down dramatically, falling from $524.6 million in October 2008 to $315 million in October 2009. Soybean meal exports were pegged at 843,600 tons, compared to 1.09 million the previous month and 1.1 million a year ago. Celeres reports that as of October 30, 35% of Brazil’s soybean crop had been planted.
Corn was higher on technical and fund buying, along with spillover from beans. Corn also started lower but rebounded solidly. There are a lot of concerns over harvest pace and quality and forecasts for next week now look wetter. Ahead of next week’s USDA updated supply, demand and production estimates, Linn Group has corn at 13.025 billion bushels and Allendale sees corn at 13.034 billion, both of which would be up from the most recent USDA projection. Ethanol futures were mostly higher.
The wheat complex was in a fairly quiet, mostly directionless, session. Chicago was steady to lower on profit taking and the negative supply and demand fundamentals. Kansas City was steady to higher on light fund buying, but there was pressure from the fundamentals. Minneapolis was mixed, following Chicago and Kansas City’s leads. There may be some state side concerns about the soft red winter planting pace, but the trade has stepped back from that, instead focusing on the large world supply. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reports that the 2009 grain harvest as of November 2 is 96% complete at 44.82 million tons. Japan’s Ag Ministry states that there will be no wheat tender this week due to a public holiday.
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