Friday 27th January 2012

Wheat inspections larger than expected

It was a mixed week for grain and oilseed export inspections. According to the USDA wheat inspections for the week ending September 24 were larger than expected while soybeans were within estimates and corn was below projections.

Wheat came out at 24.020 million bushels, down 1.432 million from the week ending September 17 but up 121,000 from the week ending September 25, 2008. At this point in the 2009/10 marketing year, wheat inspections are 272.458 million bushels, compared to 427.012 million in 2008/09.

Corn was reported at 29.582 million bushels, 11.330 million less than the previous week and 12.203 million lower than a year ago. Less than a month into the current marketing year, corn inspections are 139.281 million bushels, compared to 129.532 million this time last year.

Soybeans were pegged at 7.427 million bushels, 6.695 million above the prior week’s revised total but 951,000 below last year. Also less than a month into the current marketing year, soybean inspections are 26.009 million bushels, compared to 20.909 million a year ago.

Sorghum inspections totaled 5.893 million bushels. That’s 2.978 million larger than the week before but 941,000 smaller than a year ago. 2009/10 sorghum inspections are 14.968 million bushels, compared to 13.711 million in 2008/09.

Compromising with HSUS in Michigan

State by state, the Humane Society of the United States is methodically advancing its animal rights agenda across the U.S.  Michigan is the latest to succumb.  That state’s pork and poultry groups have compromised with HSUS on legislation that contains regulations similar to those found in California’s Proposition 2. Sam Hines, executive vice-president of the Michigan Pork Producers Association, gives us more details on the agreement, which he says is actually closer to the compromise that HSUS reached with Colorado pork producers in 2008.

AUDIO: Sam Hines (3 min MP3)

Hog, pig numbers drop slowly

There are still too many pigs around to allow producers to make a profit. University of Missouri Livestock Economist Ron Plain confirms that U.S. sow numbers need to decrease more rapidly for the industry to overcome red ink. His advice to producers is to take advantage of dips in feed grain prices to lock in input costs.

AUDIO: Ron Plain (3 min. MP3)

Hogs and pigs numbers show slow herd liquidation

Ron Plain discusses the numbers, profit potential and demand (5 Minutes, 45 Seconds, MP3)

USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs numbers look fairly neutral, but the report doesn’t show the herd liquidation that many have been looking for. All hogs and pigs as of September 1 were up 1% from last quarter but down 1% from last year at 66.6 million head. The breeding inventory was reported at 5.87 million head, 2% less than on June 1 and 3% under September 1, 2008. The market herd was pegged at 60.8 million head, a 1% increase from last quarter and a 2% decrease from a year ago.

University of Missouri Extension Economist Ron Plain tells Brownfield that pushes back his outlook for profitability, “There’s little chance at all – fourth quarter this year, first quarter next year – of prices being profitable. The first month were we sort of have a chance is May 2010 but with these numbers the odds appear to be above average that for the year of 2010, it’s still going to be a year with red ink. It looks like we may well have to wait until 2011.”

Soybeans up, corn down ahead of the weekend: September 25, 2009

Soybeans were modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. Fundamentals remain good, but traders are keeping an eye on the weather and there was no real new news, which kept trade mixed for much of the day. Development is slower than average and there have been harvest delays in the Delta, making the supply scarcity that much more of an issue and pushing the basis higher. Still, this year’s crop should be a new record barring late weather problems, limiting the upside. Soybean products were mixed with meal up and oil down on product spread trade. Unknown destinations bought 27,000 tons of 2009/10 U.S. soybean oil. The new marketing year for soybean products starts October 1.

Corn was lower on modestly profit taking and technical selling. There was no real fresh news for corn either and there’s not much of a frost threat in the near term weather outlooks. However, development does remain considerably slower than average and some forecasts do look fairly wet and cool, so traders were reluctant to push corn down too far ahead of the weekend. Outside markets Friday weren’t much of a factor in any of the grains and oilseeds. Ethanol futures were mostly firm.

The wheat complex was lower on technical selling and profit taking. The fundamentals are extremely negative with the large available supply and lack of new demand. Also, there’s some nervousness about potential reforms to CBOT storage rates. A CFTC subcommittee is recommending the CBOT adopt a variable or dynamic storage rate system beginning with the December 2009 wheat contract. Chicago and Kansas City picked up additional pressure from good winter wheat development weather and harvest pressure was a feature in Minneapolis. European what was mixed on short covering against the large available supply; November Paris was flat and November London was up .8%. Egypt is holding 63,000 tons of Russian wheat at Port Said due to improper documentation. The United Kingdom’s National Farmers’ Union estimates 2009 U.K. wheat production at 13.9 million tons, down 3.4 million from 2008 on poor planting conditions and a dry spring. Taiwan bought 38,200 tons of U.S. wheat.

Foreign biotech regulators visit Iowa farm

Participants in the U.S. Grains Council’s International Biotechnology Information Conference visited the Gordon Wassenaar farm near Prairie City, Iowa Friday. 

This particular group included biotech regulators from Central and Latin America. Waasenaar, who has hosted several such tours over the years, says it’s a good opportunity to dispel some of the remaining myths about biotechnology.

”I’ve had visitors here that really ask what I would consider almost silly questions about biotech,” Wassenaar says, “about your pets and animals and other various things—stories that floating around the world that there’s absolutely no truth in.”

But Wassenaar says the Grains Council’s educational efforts have helped tremendously, and most visitors these days are much more literate about biotechnology. 

We asked Waasenaar what he likes most about biotech corn. “Not having downed corn with rootworm problems—not having ears lying on the ground with corn borer, which we did years ago.”

Which, Wassenaar says, means easier harvesting and more grain. “It’s just such a breeze to harvest corn now where it’s all standing and you’re getting almost all of the corn that’s out there,” he says. “Your field loss is very, very small.”

Wassenaar also grows Roundup Ready soybeans.  He serves on the biotech committees of the both the Grains Council and the National Corn Growers Association, and is a past chairman of the Iowa Corn Promotion Board.

AUDIO: Gordon Wassenaar (8 min MP3)

Taiwanese delegation visits Indiana

A 13-member delegation from the Taiwan Agricultural Trade Goodwill Mission was in Indiana on Friday, September 25, where they signed a letter of intent to purchase Indiana corn and soybeans. TaiwaneseTradeMission 003

“They have quite an understanding of the quality and the quantity of our Indiana corn and soybeans,” said Indiana Lt. Governor Becky Skillman. “This is a relationship we want to keep very strong.”

AUDIO: Indiana Lt. Governor Becky Skillman (1:35 MP3)

Both the Lt. Governor and Governor Mitch Daniels have traveled to Taiwan, the most recent in 2007 when Lt. Governor Skillman led an agricultural trade mission there.

The relationship with Taiwan dates back to 1979 when Indiana became the first state to establish sister- state relations with the Taiwanese. Dr. Paul Sun who led his first Taiwanese Goodwill Trade Mission to Indiana in 1998 tells Brownfield it’s a relationship that has been very stable over the years.

“30 years is quite a long time,” said Dr. Sun. “They have been doing very good business in Taiwan, not only in the agricultural sector, but also in the industrial sector.”

AUDIO: Dr. Paul Sun, Taiwanese Delegation leader (2:55 MP3)

From Indiana, the Taiwanese delegation will travel to Chicago for the weekend, then travel to Iowa, Illinois and Missouri before heading home.

According to the letter of intent, the Taiwan Vegetable Oil Manufacturer’s Association’s intent is to purchase between 3 million and 3.2 million MT (110-118 million bushels) of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Missouri soybeans in 2010 and 2011. The value is estimated to be worth $1.35 billion and $1.44 billion.

The Taiwan Feed Industry Association’s intent is to buy a total of 7.7 million to 10.5 million MT (303 million to 413 million bushels of corn and .5 million to .75 million MT of corn-by-products from Iowa, Illinois and Indiana during 2010 and 2011. The value is estimated at $1.69 billion and 2.37 billion.

NE grain indeminity fund idea has little support

In Nebraska, the legislature’s agriculture committee is holding hearings to discuss whether the state should establish a grain indemnity fund.  But there appears to be little support for the idea from the state’s farm and commodity groups. 

One of the proposals for funding a grain indemnity program is to establish a new checkoff assessment on grain and soybean farmers.  But Nebraska Corn Grower Association president Brandon Hunnicutt of Giltner says they are strongly opposed to that idea.

“We already have one checkoff—the ethanol checkoff—that’s going to sunset in 2012.  And in 2013, it’s going to be taken and used for water, which is not its intended purpose,” Hunnicutt says, “and so any time you have a checkoff that is not used for research, market development and education, we’re not going to support it.”

The agriculture committee will hold another hearing on the need for a grain indemnity fund on Friday, October 2nd at the state capitol in Lincoln.  At this point, no legislative bill has been introduced. The hearings are simply for discussion purposes.

AUDIO: Brandon Hunnicutt (3 min MP3)

Friday’s cattle trade a clean up affair

Live cattle contracts settled mostly lower on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in very light trade activity. The feedlot trade was a moderate disappointment once again as a moderate upward push in cash prices had been expected. October was down 5 points at 86.05, and December was up 7 at 83.35. Boxed beef cutout values were lower on light demand and offerings. Choice beef was down 1.79 at 138.55; select was 1.08 lower at 132.50.

Feeder cattle settled 15 to 55 lower. With news reports focusing on the seasonal price slump of the feeder cattle markets traders are expected to now be even more cautious, which could limit overall short term upward momentum over the near future. October was down 52 points at 96.60, and November was down 55 at 96.72.

Feeder cattle receipts at Missouri auctions this week totaled 24,816 head. Compared to last week feeder steers were 1.00 to 3.00 lower, heifers steady to 3.00 lower. Demand and supply was moderate. Feeder steers medium and large 1 and 1-2 weighing 500 to 600 pounds traded at 84.50 to 118.00, 7 to 8 weight steers from 80.25 to 101.00 per hundredweight. 500 to 600 pound heifers brought 76.00 to 104.50 and 7 to 8 weights from 74.50 to 93.25 at Missouri auctions.

The weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 649,000 head, 1,000 more than last week, but 11,000 less than last year. The cash cattle market was limited on Friday with just a few scattered deals reported in Nebraska at 83.50 live and 130.00 dressed. Trade volume totals on Thursday turned out to be just moderately active. Live sales in the South trended steady to .50 higher at 84.50, dressed sales in Kansas were steady to .50 lower from 132.50 to 133.00. Nebraska live sales were steady to .50 lower from 82.00 to 84.00, and dressed sales unevenly steady at 130.00. Iowa/Minnesota live sales were steady from 81.00 to 82.00, and dressed sales were steady to 1.00 higher from 129.00 to 130.00.

Barrows and gilts at the terminals were mostly steady with an instance of 1.00 lower from 27.00 to 34.50. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady from 43.00 to 47.00. The weekly slaughter was estimated at 2,346,000 head including 196,000 for Saturday, 36,000 more than last week, but the same as last year. Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade closed 45 lower at 48.82, the West was down .60 at 48.96, and the East was .35 higher at 47.54  Most packers reportedly have enough hogs to carry them into the early part of next week; Monday’s cash bids are predicted to be weak.

Lean hogs settled 5 to 57 on lower cash values as well as overall weakness in carcass values through the week. There was also nervousness ahead of the hogs and pigs report despite predictions of shrinking numbers. October was down 27 at 49.95, and December finished at 49.02 down 32. Pork trading was slow with light to moderate demand and offerings. The pork carcass cutout was up 1.12 at 54.75

Pork bellies for February closed 67 higher at 80.70.

Consumers have changed food buying habits

A Braun Research survey conducted for IBM confirms the recession has prompted consumers to change their food-buying habits. Telephone interviews with 4,000 people across the country and across all income levels in July found they were taking a closer look at brands, packaging and the stores they shop. While spending has changed, 72 percent said they place a higher value on quality over price. When asked what one item they do not want to give up, meat, poultry and coffee topped the list. On the other hand, they were most willing to cut spending on prepared food and individual-sized beverages.

Other points the survey found:

68% say nutrition is the most important consideration when buying food

52% say they are reducing the volume of food purchased at the grocery store

49% are shopping at more stores to get the best deal

35% have changed grocery stores to save money

34% are choosing less expensive health and personal care items

The respondents also say they will continue these new shopping habits even after the recession is over. One other note of interest, when asked if they were given an extra $10 to spend on food, how would they spend it? The most popular response across all income categories was dessert items.

Read more from the survey here: