Soybeans were mixed on old crop/new crop spread trade, consolidation and spillover from the outside markets. Contracts were mostly lower for a big chunk of the day on initial outside market negativity and profit taking. However as the day wore on, the dollar sold off, closing lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and crude oil rallied. September was up sharply on the tight supply and strong demand, weekly export sales were strong, but shipments were less than what’s needed to meet USDA projections. Fundamentals remain bullish but are less pressing for new crop than old crop. Of course, the supply is razor thin, demand is strong and there’s not much margin for error in this year’s crop. Soybean meal was mostly lower with September up on the very tight supply and other contracts down on technical selling. Soybean oil was lower on a lack of fresh supportive news and the bearish weekly export sales numbers. The Census Bureau’s July bean crush figure was larger than expected at 129.4 million bushels, however, that’s down from last month and last year due to the tight supply limiting crusher activity.
Corn closed higher on technical buying, short covering and spillover from the outside markets. Crop weather continues to look generally non-threatening and the crop is in better than a year ago condition. However, the development rate is quite a bit slower than normal and there are a few concerns about forecasts for cool, wet weather across large parts of the Midwest this weekend. Still, outside of those weather concerns and the purchase of 105,000 tons of 2009/10 U.S. corn by South Korea, there wasn’t any real new news, so depending on the weather, corn could give back gains Friday. Weekly export sales were solid, not outstanding, and shipments continue to be less than what’s needed weekly to meet the USDA’s projection for the soon to end 2008/09 marketing year. The 2009/10 marketing year starts September 1.
The wheat complex was lower on technical selling and profit taking. Weekly export sales were a marketing year high, but traders are wary about pricing U.S. wheat back out of the export market. Losses were limited by the sell-off in the dollar and the recent improvement in export demand. Japan bought a total of 160,000 tons of wheat, mostly U.S. (51,000 tons U.S. dark northern spring, 42,000 tons Australian standard white, 25,000 tons U.S. western white, 21,000 tons U.S. hard red winter and 21,000 tons Canadian western red spring), while Israel picked up 30,000 tons of feed grade, most likely from Eastern Europe. European wheat was modestly higher on oversold signals, but gains were limited by the large world crop; November Paris was up .4% and November London was .5% higher. The International Grains Council now pegs 2009/10 world wheat production at 662 million tons, down 3.6% from 2008/09′s record, but up 1.2% from July’s estimate.
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