Market News

Analysts expect bigger corn production estimate

Ahead of Wednesday’s USDA supply, demand and production update, analysts see a bigger corn crop estimate and a smaller soybean estimate.

The average guess for corn production is 12.472 billion bushels with an average yield of 157.1 bushels per acre, up from both USDA’s July projections and last year’s crop. The range of estimates for production runs from 11.792 billion to 12.814 billion bushels. For yield, estimates range from 153.0 to 160.3 bushels per acre. 2008/09 corn ending stocks are pegged at 1.746 billion bushels, compared to 1.770 billion in July and 1.624 billion this time last year. 2009/10 ending stocks are placed at 1.701 billion bushels, compared to July’s projection of 1.550 billion.

Soybeans are pegged at 3.213 billion bushels with an average yield of 42.1 bushels, down from both a month ago and a year ago. Production estimates from analysts range from 3.000 billion to 3.275 billion bushels and the yield estimates range from 40.9 to 43.5 bushels per acre. 2008/09 soybean ending stocks are expected to be around 106 million bushels, compared to 110 million in July and the year ago total of 205 million bushels. 2009/10 ending stocks are seen at 221 million bushels, compared to July’s guess of 250 million.

Wheat production’s expected to be around 2.150 billion bushels, above last month’s estimate but down from last year’s total. The average guesses by class have all winter at 1.531 billion bushels, “other” spring at 523 million and durum at 85 million bushels. 2009/10 wheat ending stocks are pegged at 737 million bushels, compared to 706 million in July.

USDA will also be updating international ending stocks projections.

The numbers are out 7:30 AM Central Wednesday, August 12.